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nfl - Sun 11/29 | 9:05 PM UTC | Empower Field at Mile High |

New Orleans @ Denver

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
NO -17
-5.5
Over / Under
36.5
46
ML
NO -1600
-245

Matchup breakdown

New Orleans
Denver
PROJ SCORE
13-4
W-L
5-10
10-7
ATS W-L
8-7
10-7
O/U
7-8
9.2
PT DIFF
-8.1
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Past Expert Picks

Mike Tierney

Top Dog
Sun 11/29

New Orleans @ Denver | 11/29 | 9:05 PM UTC

OVER 36.5

LOSS

In one corner is Taysom Hill, the most unorthodox quarterback in the league who is filling in for the injured Drew Brees (ribs). In the opposite corner is Kendall Hinton, a WR filling in for, well, all of the COVID-sidelined Denver QBs. The result is a rock-bottom total. It should be exceeded because New Orleans coach Sean Payton is a QB whisperer who will get the most out of Hill, Hinton was a decent college QB and defenses can set up scores. Both PKs can produce threes in bunches. Denver’s Brandon McManus has missed one of his 21 field-goal tries, New Orleans' Will Lutz two of his 21.

+430 24-18-2 IN LAST 44 NFL PICKS
+60 5-4 IN LAST 9 DEN O/U PICKS

R.J. White

Super Stat Geek
Sat 11/28

New Orleans @ Denver | 11/29 | 9:05 PM UTC

UNDER 43

WIN

The Saints defense has been on fire over the last three weeks, giving up just one touchdown to the 49ers in that span while holding good offenses in the Bucs and Falcons to field-goal attempts and generating nine turnovers in that span. I expect them to shut down a Broncos team that ranks 30th in points per drive and 29th in red-zone success rate. But I'm not sure the Saints have a ton of success offensively either with Taysom Hill at quarterback and the left side of the offensive line out against a Denver defense that's sixth in adjusted sack rate. Will either team get to 20 points?

+1670 78-55-5 IN LAST 138 NFL PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 DEN O/U PICKS

Emory Hunt

The Czar of the Playbook
Fri 11/27

New Orleans @ Denver | 11/29 | 9:05 PM UTC

New Orleans -6

WIN

We saw Sean Payton do a great job of crafting an offense around Taysom Hill last week against the Falcons, one that saw him be effective, efficient and productive. Defensively, the real story has been how well they've been playing over the last two months. Denver does provide a good challenge for them, as the Broncos can spread the field. But I wonder if they will get the consistent version of QB Drew Lock, or, will the wildly inconsistent one show up.

+345 11-7-1 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS
+820 16-7 IN LAST 23 NO ATS PICKS
+300 5-2 IN LAST 7 DEN ATS PICKS

Kenny White

Wizard of Odds
Sun 11/29

New Orleans @ Denver | 11/29 | 9:05 PM UTC

UNDER 36

WIN

With their top three quarterbacks sitting this one out, the Broncos will use practice squad WR Kendall Hinton, who was a QB at Wake Forest. RB Royce Freeman will run Wildcat packages. The Saints are without QB Drew Brees and have the second-rated defense in terms of DVOA. Denver's offense was ranked 32nd with an actual NFL QB but its defense is ninth in the league.

+495 28-21-3 IN LAST 52 NFL PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 NO O/U PICKS

Hank Goldberg

Hammer
Wed 11/25

New Orleans @ Denver | 11/29 | 9:05 PM UTC

New Orleans -5.5

WIN

The Saints are going to crush the Broncos. New Orleans' defense is improving every week; Taysom Hill is playing well and will continue to do so. He has great offensive players around him. The Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 as road favorites. Lay the points.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS
+1322 20-6-1 IN LAST 27 NO ATS PICKS
+75 4-3 IN LAST 7 DEN ATS PICKS

Matt Severance

Severance Pays
Sun 11/29

New Orleans @ Denver | 11/29 | 9:05 PM UTC

Denver +16.5

LOSS

Kudos to you if you took New Orleans early in the week when the spread was around Saints -5; it has skyrocketed with the news the Broncos are down all three quarterbacks due to COVID. That has to be unprecedented and it's frankly embarrassing the NFL is making them play this game. The team is so thin there it wanted to start an assistant coach under center but the league said no. Wow. Welcome to 2020. It will be undrafted rookie practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton, who played some QB at Wake Forest. I'm still taking all these points because the guy the Saints have at QB, Taysom Hill, has exactly one more career start in the NFL.

+225 20-16-1 IN LAST 37 NFL PICKS
+195 3-1 IN LAST 4 NO ATS PICKS

New Orleans

player
QBTaysomHill
21.34fan duel$7,700
22.61draft kings$6,300
23.58cbs sports
player
QBJameisWinston
2.23fan duel$7,000
2.23draft kings$5,700
2.6cbs sports
player
RBAlvinKamara
17.62fan duel$7,500
21.44draft kings$7,000
14.91cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
T. HillTaysom Hill19/261771.600.640.5323.6
J. WinstonJameis Winston3/4270.240.110.042.6
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
A. KamaraAlvin Kamara14.2610.544.30.2014.9
T. HillTaysom Hill9.9550.405.50.5323.6
L. MurrayLatavius Murray12.0480.244.00.137.0
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
M. ThomasMichael Thomas6.4650.4210.20.069.0
A. KamaraAlvin Kamara5.3420.277.90.2014.9
E. SandersEmmanuel Sanders4.1420.3510.20.046.4
J. CookJared Cook2.5300.4512.00.065.7
M. CallawayMarquez Callaway2.3240.1410.60.083.2
T. SmithTre`Quan Smith2.1230.2910.90.024.1
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
N. DSTNO DST2.161.140.742.02.32.6

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Drew Brees, Anthony Lanier, Johnson Bademosi
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

Denver

player
WRKendallHinton
7.37fan duel
7.52draft kings
7.35cbs sports
player
RBRoyceFreeman
3.97fan duel
4.43draft kings
3.54cbs sports
player
RBPhillipLindsay
8.18fan duel
9.3draft kings
7.74cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
K. HintonKendall Hinton10/221130.641.300.547.4
R. FreemanRoyce Freeman2/4150.080.190.063.5
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
P. LindsayPhillip Lindsay14.8560.303.80.167.7
M. GordonMelvin Gordon16.2530.323.30.347.6
K. HintonKendall Hinton5.4180.113.40.547.4
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
J. JeudyJerry Jeudy2.6320.1612.20.034.1
T. PatrickTim Patrick2.5290.2111.50.034.2
N. FantNoah Fant2.4200.138.50.022.8
K. HamlerKJ Hamler1.8160.119.00.042.6
D. HamiltonDaeSean Hamilton1.4110.138.10.051.8
M. GordonMelvin Gordon1.360.064.80.347.6
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
D. DSTDEN DST1.710.710.630.91.01.2

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Courtland Sutton, Albert Okwuegbunam, Bryce Callahan, Von Miller, Jurrell Casey, Mike Purcell, Nigel Bradham, Joel Heath, Kyle Peko, Justin Strnad, Austin Fort
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 11/29/2020 20:48 GMT