Kudos to you if you took New Orleans early in the week when the spread was around Saints -5; it has skyrocketed with the news the Broncos are down all three quarterbacks due to COVID. That has to be unprecedented and it's frankly embarrassing the NFL is making them play this game. The team is so thin there it wanted to start an assistant coach under center but the league said no. Wow. Welcome to 2020. It will be undrafted rookie practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton, who played some QB at Wake Forest. I'm still taking all these points because the guy the Saints have at QB, Taysom Hill, has exactly one more career start in the NFL.

In one corner is Taysom Hill, the most unorthodox quarterback in the league who is filling in for the injured Drew Brees (ribs). In the opposite corner is Kendall Hinton, a WR filling in for, well, all of the COVID-sidelined Denver QBs. The result is a rock-bottom total. It should be exceeded because New Orleans coach Sean Payton is a QB whisperer who will get the most out of Hill, Hinton was a decent college QB and defenses can set up scores. Both PKs can produce threes in bunches. Denver’s Brandon McManus has missed one of his 21 field-goal tries, New Orleans' Will Lutz two of his 21.

With their top three quarterbacks sitting this one out, the Broncos will use practice squad WR Kendall Hinton, who was a QB at Wake Forest. RB Royce Freeman will run Wildcat packages. The Saints are without QB Drew Brees and have the second-rated defense in terms of DVOA. Denver's offense was ranked 32nd with an actual NFL QB but its defense is ninth in the league.

The Saints defense has been on fire over the last three weeks, giving up just one touchdown to the 49ers in that span while holding good offenses in the Bucs and Falcons to field-goal attempts and generating nine turnovers in that span. I expect them to shut down a Broncos team that ranks 30th in points per drive and 29th in red-zone success rate. But I'm not sure the Saints have a ton of success offensively either with Taysom Hill at quarterback and the left side of the offensive line out against a Denver defense that's sixth in adjusted sack rate. Will either team get to 20 points?

We saw Sean Payton do a great job of crafting an offense around Taysom Hill last week against the Falcons, one that saw him be effective, efficient and productive. Defensively, the real story has been how well they've been playing over the last two months. Denver does provide a good challenge for them, as the Broncos can spread the field. But I wonder if they will get the consistent version of QB Drew Lock, or, will the wildly inconsistent one show up.

The Saints are going to crush the Broncos. New Orleans' defense is improving every week; Taysom Hill is playing well and will continue to do so. He has great offensive players around him. The Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 as road favorites. Lay the points.