There's been a strange insistence of giving the Falcons more credit than they deserve this season despite the fact that they're 4-6 ATS. The two teams they beat and covered against recently do not compare to this Raiders team, which has covered four straight with three outright wins. Todd Gurley is out, Julio Jones is not expected to play, and the Raiders are going to take advantage of their extra possessions. Hop on now before the hook gets added to this line ahead of kickoff.

The Raiders' offense is clicking on all cylinders and the Falcons look primed for a bounceback at home following last week's dud. Atlanta is dead last in yards per play allowed (6.4) and the Raiders aren't much better at 6.0. Go Over.

RB Todd Gurley, out (knee). WR Julio Jones, possibly out (hamstring). Falcons QB Matt Ryan will be stripped of at least one reliable sidekick, and the offense will be mildly or severely crippled, depending on Jones’ status. Vegas has covered four in a row, while Atlanta’s home-field edge has dwindled in recent years at its domed stadium. The Raiders’ lively pass attack versus the Falcons’ often shoddy pass defense is Mismatch City.

The Falcons defense couldn't get off the field at all in the second half of the Saints game, allowing Taysom Hill to covert on third down after third down. The Raiders played a solid enough game to win last week but came up short. With the playoffs firmly within their grasp, look for them to bounce back with a strong effort against Atlanta.

This game opened as a pick em at most books and was quickly bet to Raiders -3. Now, I like the Raiders. I think Derek Carr has made some significant strides and is now one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the league. It's just, I'm still not ready to trust the Raiders as three-point favorites on the road. Not with a defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in DVOA. That's worse than Atlanta's, and nobody considers Atlanta to be a good defense. The Raiders also allow 2.74 points per possession on defense, which ranks dead last in the league.