The inactives were pretty bleak for the Lions. While I expect a mammoth effort from Matthew Stafford, the Texans should light up this defense. Houston, having played a brutal schedule, is better than its record. Back the Texans to win a high-scoring game.

Anyone picking on Thanksgiving, like myself, missed the best line on this game, which was Texans -2. But as the game draws closer, I have begun to think Houston might have a substantial lead late. The question is whether it can keep it. The Lions are already without Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola and Jeff Okudah. There's a chance D'Andre Swift won't be available either. I like Brandin Cooks to have a big day against Detroit's depleted secondary and Deshaun Watson to take care of business otherwise. I would be hesitant to take this with the hook and prefer not taking it at the full three if possible, but that's where we are right now.

Even with all their injuries, the Lions should bounce back at home offensively after getting shut out last week. We know Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are going to do their part, especially with Detroit severely banged up in the secondary. Go Over.

I do NOT recommend betting a game sitting right at -3 and will be buying Houston down to -2.5. Favorites have been dominant on Thanksgiving for years, and the Lions have lost their past eight overall as home dogs (3-5 ATS). However, I'm taking Houston not so much for any betting trends but that Detroit appears to have quit on lame-duck coach Matt Patricia (see news feed story on how Thursday might be Patricia's last game) and that the Lions will be without several key injured players, led by WR Kenny Golladay and rookie cornerback and No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah. In fact, Detroit might be down several players in the secondary. Good news indeed for Deshaun Watson, who has yet to lose an NFL game in his career on short rest.

Typically in a situation like this I want to be all over the home 'dog that looked terrible last week, but I'm not sure I can do it with Detroit. The matchup suggests the offense could have a good day, but Matthew Stafford and Co. couldn't do anything against another mediocre defense last week. Teams can beat the Texans by getting up early and running the ball down their throats, but the Lions are pros at losing big leads. If Kenny Golladay comes back and you want to play Lions at +3, I won't give you too much pushback. But this line is getting to 3 at some point, and right now I want to be the guy with Texans -2.5 in my pocket.