Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Expert Picks
This line is more likely to hit 4 than fall back to 3, so I'll jump on it now with the red-hot Dolphins. Drew Lock doesn't handle pressure well and he'll see a lot of it today from Miami. Look for Denver to keep turning the ball over (21 turnovers this season) as Miami grinds out another win and cover.
The Dolphins have outperformed expectations more than any team this season, with an ATS +/- of 10.6. Miami also has a 7-2 ATS record (tied with the Steelers for the best mark) and while it's worth wondering when the value in taking a team on such a stretch evaporates, I don't think it's this week. Drew Lock has taken an obvious step back, and Denver has one only once all season on its home field, and that was by a point. Lay the lumber.
The Dolphins have won five straight games, covering all five. During the stretch, they've played three non-playoff teams, caught the Los Angeles Rams in a horrible spot and were very lucky to upset Arizona. They were outgained by more than 300 yards by the Rams but won the game and also were outgained by the Cardinals. Denver's 11th-ranked defense struggled on the road the last two weeks, but playing at home here will help. Take the Broncos plus at least three.
The Dolphins are allowing 17.2 points per game during their five-game win streak, with the Cardinals the only team to succeed offensively. Denver's offense doesn't compare to Arizona's. Drew Lock is playing hurt, and Noah Fant also won't be 100 percent if he's active. Look for the Under to improve to 14-6 in Denver's last 20 home games.
Miami has played really good defensively the last couple of weeks and is riding a five-game winning streak. The Dolphins also have received better play from rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa, who will be making his fourth consecutive start. Denver QB Drew Lock has to do a better job of protecting the football. He was a big reason why the Broncos lost to Las Vegas last week, and Miami's defense is a bit tougher than the Raiders'.
Miami can beat you in a number of ways: Defense, special teams, the ground game or Tua Tagovailoa. I don't think the travel is going to slow down the Dolphins. Denver is poorly coached and it doesn't matter who starts at QB for the Broncos. Miami will keep rolling.
The Dolphins have seen their point totals inflated recently due to the performance of the defense and special teams, and their offense will face a Broncos defense that ranks a respectable 13th in points per drive despite some tough matchups leading to big point totals allowed in recent weeks. The Broncos offense is either going to start Brett Rypien or a banged-up Drew Lock, and I don't see them scoring much against this Miami defense that's playing well. A total of 45 isn't that high in 2020, but it's a bar I think these teams will have trouble clearing, though I'm getting in now in case the total drops any lower.
My model says the Dolphins cover almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting value at this number. Miami is riding a five-game winning streak, with rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa under center for the last three. The Dolphins are averaging 30 points on the road while the Broncos rank in the bottom 10 in the league in scoring (20.7 points). Denver also is 1-3 at home. Take Miami.