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nfl - Sun 11/22 | 9:05 PM UTC | Empower Field at Mile High |

Miami @ Denver

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
MIA -4
PK
Over / Under
46
45.5
ML
MIA -210
-145

Matchup breakdown

Miami
Denver
PROJ SCORE
6-4
W-L
4-6
7-3
ATS W-L
6-4
4-6
O/U
5-5
6.2
PT DIFF
-6.1
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Sun 11/22

Miami @ Denver | 11/22 | 9:05 PM UTC

UNDER 46

WIN

The Dolphins are allowing 17.2 points per game during their five-game win streak, with the Cardinals the only team to succeed offensively. Denver's offense doesn't compare to Arizona's. Drew Lock is playing hurt, and Noah Fant also won't be 100 percent if he's active. Look for the Under to improve to 14-6 in Denver's last 20 home games.

+280 5-2 IN LAST 7 NFL O/U PICKS

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Sun 11/22

Miami @ Denver | 11/22 | 9:05 PM UTC

Miami -3.5

LOSS

This line is more likely to hit 4 than fall back to 3, so I'll jump on it now with the red-hot Dolphins. Drew Lock doesn't handle pressure well and he'll see a lot of it today from Miami. Look for Denver to keep turning the ball over (21 turnovers this season) as Miami grinds out another win and cover.

+30 5-4 IN LAST 9 NFL PICKS
+340 10-6 IN LAST 16 MIA ATS PICKS

Stephen Oh

Data Scientist
Tue 11/17

Miami @ Denver | 11/22 | 9:05 PM UTC

Miami -3.5

LOSS

My model says the Dolphins cover almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting value at this number. Miami is riding a five-game winning streak, with rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa under center for the last three. The Dolphins are averaging 30 points on the road while the Broncos rank in the bottom 10 in the league in scoring (20.7 points). Denver also is 1-3 at home. Take Miami.

+305 12-8-1 IN LAST 21 NFL ATS PICKS
+284 5-2 IN LAST 7 DEN ATS PICKS

R.J. White

Super Stat Geek
Wed 11/18

Miami @ Denver | 11/22 | 9:05 PM UTC

UNDER 45

WIN

The Dolphins have seen their point totals inflated recently due to the performance of the defense and special teams, and their offense will face a Broncos defense that ranks a respectable 13th in points per drive despite some tough matchups leading to big point totals allowed in recent weeks. The Broncos offense is either going to start Brett Rypien or a banged-up Drew Lock, and I don't see them scoring much against this Miami defense that's playing well. A total of 45 isn't that high in 2020, but it's a bar I think these teams will have trouble clearing, though I'm getting in now in case the total drops any lower.

+650 41-31-3 IN LAST 75 NFL PICKS
+470 8-3 IN LAST 11 MIA O/U PICKS

Emory Hunt

The Czar of the Playbook
Thu 11/19

Miami @ Denver | 11/22 | 9:05 PM UTC

Miami -3.5

LOSS

Miami has played really good defensively the last couple of weeks and is riding a five-game winning streak. The Dolphins also have received better play from rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa, who will be making his fourth consecutive start. Denver QB Drew Lock has to do a better job of protecting the football. He was a big reason why the Broncos lost to Las Vegas last week, and Miami's defense is a bit tougher than the Raiders'.

+90 4-3 IN LAST 7 NFL ATS PICKS
+300 4-1 IN LAST 5 DEN ATS PICKS

Kenny White

Wizard of Odds
Sun 11/22

Miami @ Denver | 11/22 | 9:05 PM UTC

Denver +3.5

WIN

The Dolphins have won five straight games, covering all five. During the stretch, they've played three non-playoff teams, caught the Los Angeles Rams in a horrible spot and were very lucky to upset Arizona. They were outgained by more than 300 yards by the Rams but won the game and also were outgained by the Cardinals. Denver's 11th-ranked defense struggled on the road the last two weeks, but playing at home here will help. Take the Broncos plus at least three.

+575 18-11-2 IN LAST 31 NFL PICKS

Brett Anderson

The Dog Whisperer
Sun 11/22

Miami @ Denver | 11/22 | 9:05 PM UTC

Miami -3.5

LOSS

The Dolphins have outperformed expectations more than any team this season, with an ATS +/- of 10.6. Miami also has a 7-2 ATS record (tied with the Steelers for the best mark) and while it's worth wondering when the value in taking a team on such a stretch evaporates, I don't think it's this week. Drew Lock has taken an obvious step back, and Denver has one only once all season on its home field, and that was by a point. Lay the lumber.

+185 4-2 IN LAST 6 MIA ATS PICKS

Hank Goldberg

Hammer
Wed 11/18

Miami @ Denver | 11/22 | 9:05 PM UTC

Miami -3.5

LOSS

Miami can beat you in a number of ways: Defense, special teams, the ground game or Tua Tagovailoa. I don't think the travel is going to slow down the Dolphins. Denver is poorly coached and it doesn't matter who starts at QB for the Broncos. Miami will keep rolling.

+156 8-6 IN LAST 14 MIA ATS PICKS

Bill Marzano

Veteran Handicapper
Sun 11/22

Miami @ Denver | 11/22 | 9:05 PM UTC

Miami -3.5

LOSS

The Dolphins were playing well prior to switching to Tua Tagovailoa at QB, and now they are playing their best football of the season. Miami's defense also has been playing at a very high level, creating a ton of turnovers the last few games. The Broncos are a mess and I don't think they match up well in this game. Denver has issues at QB and is averaging just over 20 points per contest while allowing just over 28. The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

+70 4-3 IN LAST 7 NFL PICKS

Miami

player
QBTuaTagovailoa
17.41fan duel$6,700
18.16draft kings$5,800
20.42cbs sports
player
RBSalvonAhmed
10.54fan duel$5,600
11.77draft kings$4,800
10.17cbs sports
player
RBMattBreida
6.77fan duel$4,600
7.87draft kings$4,000
5.97cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
T. TagovailoaTua Tagovailoa23/342301.900.790.3920.4
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
S. AhmedSalvon Ahmed15.0640.534.30.2010.2
M. BreidaMatt Breida7.8340.164.40.096.0
T. TagovailoaTua Tagovailoa2.8110.104.00.3920.4
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
D. ParkerDeVante Parker5.1630.4612.40.059.1
M. GesickiMike Gesicki3.5440.2912.70.046.2
J. GrantJakeem Grant4.3430.2610.00.076.1
M. PerryMalcolm Perry1.7220.1113.10.052.9
M. BreidaMatt Breida1.6140.068.60.096.0
D. SmytheDurham Smythe1.3120.249.20.012.7
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
M. DSTMIA DST2.091.440.622.32.62.7

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Preston Williams, Albert Wilson, Allen Hurns, Davon Godchaux, Nate Brooks, Vince Biegel, Jonathan Ledbetter
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

Denver

player
QBDrewLock
16.64fan duel$6,800
17.51draft kings$5,400
18.04cbs sports
player
RBPhillipLindsay
8.39fan duel$5,400
9.72draft kings$4,500
7.69cbs sports
player
RBMelvinGordon
10.13fan duel$6,400
11.78draft kings$5,100
9.08cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
D. LockDrew Lock20/332401.401.400.1418.0
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
P. LindsayPhillip Lindsay9.6520.255.50.117.7
M. GordonMelvin Gordon10.8500.394.60.219.1
D. LockDrew Lock3.0100.293.30.1418.0
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
J. JeudyJerry Jeudy3.8690.2818.10.048.6
T. PatrickTim Patrick3.7560.3915.20.048.0
N. FantNoah Fant3.5440.2412.60.045.8
K. HamlerKJ Hamler2.5350.1914.10.055.0
D. HamiltonDaeSean Hamilton2.1250.2411.90.083.8
M. GordonMelvin Gordon2.1140.116.90.219.1
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
D. DSTDEN DST2.670.810.591.51.82.0

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Courtland Sutton, Albert Okwuegbunam, Von Miller, Jurrell Casey, Mike Purcell, Nigel Bradham, Joel Heath, Kyle Peko, Justin Strnad, Austin Fort
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 11/22/2020 20:06 GMT