The Chargers rank 11th on offense and 16th on defense according to DVOA. Los Angeles is 5-3 with the Over. Justin Herbert is the main reason the Chargers have gone from an Under team to an Over team. Miami is now lead by Tua Tagovailoa, another rookie sensation. What we may not get on offense from rookie quarterbacks, we can get in turnovers. Average scoring in the NFL is 49 points per game, and we have two exciting rookie QBs here.

Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa have both been impressive, though Herbert may be a step ahead at this point. But the mismatch here is at coach. Brian Flores' Dolphins never stop playing hard, and they've won four in a row with two different QBs. The Chargers, on the other hand, have gone a mind-numbing 3-15 in one-score games since the start of last season. The last L.A. team to play in the South Florida humidity didn't fare too well, and this one won't either. Lay the points.

This line is trending toward 3, with good reason. The Chargers are experts at losing close games, while Brian Flores is building something special in Miami. The Dolphins are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games and continue to be undervalued. Lay it.

Considering what we know now of the Dolphins, I think this line should be on the other side of 3, so I'm grabbing it now before it moves onto the key number. The Miami offense looked on point after getting involved in a shootout with Arizona, and Tua Tagovailoa was able to orchestrate enough offense to be a good Cardinals team on the road. Now they'll get to return home and face a not-so-good Chargers team that finds new ways to lose every week. The Dolphins defense has the personnel to match up with the Chargers offense and should be less susceptible to the run this week with L.A. dealing with injuries at RB. They make the difference in a Miami win and cover.