While the Titans are excelling on offense, with great third-down and red-zone numbers to go along with a great DVOA, the Bears can match them on each front, ranking sixth in DVOA and first in both third-down and red-zone success rate. And the absence of Taylor Lewan should make a difference against a team with a good pass rush on the edge. On the other side of the ball, the Titans' defense is awful, especially on third down, where they have the worst success rate of any team through seven games in the last 30 years. The Bears offense isn't good, but it's good enough to have some success here and keep this one close, perhaps with a chance to win.

Chicago's putrid offensive line could be without several starters on Sunday (although that may actually help): Right tackle Bobby Massie is out injured, center Cody Whitehair looking likely to miss a second game in a row, and swing tackle Jason Spriggs just landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list after testing positive. Right guard Germain Ifedi is in jeopardy of sitting too because he was identified as a high-risk close contact with Spriggs and will also go on the reserve list but at least could be cleared by Sunday. A few weeks ago, guard James Daniels was lost for the season. How do the Bears even get to 10 points here?

This is the lowest total Tennessee has seen since Week 3. The Bears' bend-but-don't-break defense started to show some flaws versus the Saints, and the Titans are extremely well-positioned to do just as much damage. Plus, I like that the Bears finally got Anthony Miller involved in their passing game. Look for the Over to improve to 13-3-1 in Tennessee's last 17 home games.