It appears likely that Philip Lindsay will play; he's been far more effective than Melvin Gordon, averaging 5.2 yards per carry to Gordon's 4.3. Denver didn't play as badly last week as the score indicated. The Broncos are 0-3 at home, but those losses came to the Titans, Buccaneers and Chiefs. Look for Denver to bounce back strong and possibly earn its first home win.

The Broncos got destroyed last week against the Chiefs, but if you look into that game, their defense actually played really well on the day. With that performance, the Denver defense ranks in the top 10 in DVOA against both the pass and the run. While the Broncos offense has struggled, it's not like the Chargers are playing up to their normal standard defensively, ranking 13th in points per drive but allowing 29-plus points in three straight. With Justin Herbert coming off his first win and facing a good defense on the road, I see this is as a fine spot to fade the rookie QB and expect a close game.

These 2-4 teams (straight-up) are not created equal. L.A. has played solidly all season and finally figured out a winning formula under gifted rookie QB Justin Herbert last Sunday. The Chargers have neglected to cover just once this year. Denver, with QB Drew Lock under siege, has managed one touchdown (and a slew of field goals) the past two weeks. Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive guy. Good luck trying to scheme against Herbert, who can cause damage with his arm and legs.

Justin Herbert has thrown for 300-plus three times in his five starts, and I think he'll have success against Denver's pass defense. On the other side, Drew Lock can't get the Broncos in the end zone. Lay the points.