The Lions opened with four tough games against teams that are now a combined 19-7, and interestingly enough, they led by at least two TDs in all three of the games they lost. Since getting Kenny Golladay back from injury, Detroit has gone 3-1. The Colts have had the NFL's easiest schedule so far, and while they're coming off a bye and do have a big advantage at head coach, they've only beaten one opponent with a winning record (Bears) and even lost to a team that Detroit beat by 18. Grab the three.

Three of the Colts' wins have come against the Vikings, Jets and Bengals, who are a combined 2-17-1. A fourth came over the overrated Bears. Meanwhile Indy already has lost on the road at Jacksonville and at Cleveland. My model says Detroit covers well over 50 percent of the time, so you're getting good value with the Lions at this number.

I’ve been hypnotized by the Colts defense, but I think we have to emphasize an easy schedule that disguises who they really are. I know who the Lions are; they keep bettors on the edge of their seat in almost any game no matter who they play but have won their last two, both on the road. All three of the Lions wins came on the road. They get their first home win Sunday. I took the points.

Darius Leonard is practicing fully, a big boost to the NFL's No. 2-ranked defense. The Colts will clamp down on a mediocre Lions team that's 0-2 at home this season. Lay the points.

The Indianapolis Colts currently sit at 4-2 on the season. But when you take a deeper look at their wins, and it has been mainly against bad football teams. Watching them play, you can see why they tend to struggle against solid-to-good squads. Detroit enters this game riding a two-game winning streak, and has looked better than the Colts in its three wins on the season. The Lions are trending in the right direction, as they've started to play good complimentary football.

The Colts have a great defense and linebacker Darius Leonard has returned to practice. Philip Rivers had a terrific game before Indy's bye. Lay the small number.

The Colts have stumbled a bit over their last few games, but the bye should benefit them a great deal. They're excellent at everything except running the ball, and I don't think that's going to matter much against a Lions team coming off back-to-back road wins against bottom-of-the-barrel team. The Colts defense should have no problem slowing down a Lions offense that was struggling before getting to face the Jaguars and Falcons defenses, and I love the fact that the Colts are coming off a bye, which should widen the coaching edge between Frank Reich and Matt Patricia. Great spot for Indy here.