The Packers get Davante Adams back this week, while Chris Godwin's status remains a bit up in the air for the Bucs. But even without Adams for multiple weeks, Aaron Rodgers is in the midst of a resurgent season with the Packers that has seen him find his old form. What Green Bay has done to this point has been impressive both on the field and in the books (4-0 ATS). Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has largely taken advantage of teams not quite ready for prime time. The Packers are rested, and the travel should not be a big deal for them. Let's keep riding 'em 'til the wheels fall off.

Before I ran my simulations, my eye test made the Packers -3.5 favorites. After running my simulations I make the Packers -1.1 points better, which is essentially where the market is on this game. I'm going to play the Packers in a situation that my model says is neither +EV or -EV, because I think the model might be a touch slow to adjust to Rodgers bounce back year.

What do you do when two of the greatest QBs of all-time are going head-to-head? In my opinion, you go with the one who is playing better at the time, and that's definitely Aaron Rodgers. I don't know if the Packers drafted Jordan Love with the sole purpose of making Aaron angry and getting him to play like this, but whatever the case, it's been an excellent outcome for the Packers. Tom Brady, meanwhile, is still playing well enough, but he's showing signs of decline, and I don't just mean because he can't remember how many downs there are. Also, for whatever it's worth to you, these two have only squared off as starters twice during their careers and the favorite has covered each time.

Green Bay had been as high as -3 but is now down to -1. Aaron Rodgers is the only qualifying QB yet to throw a pick in 2020 and he'll get Pro Bowl WR Davante Adams back this week. Rodgers is 8-2-1 ATS in his career after a bye week. Meanwhile, Tampa's stellar run defense has lost one of its key components for the season in tackle Vita Vea, who was playing at a Pro Bowl level. Since last year, Tom Brady is 1-6-1 ATS vs. teams above .500. That cover percentage of 14 is the worst in the NFL among QBs with at least five such starts.

The Packers can score on anyone, and I think Tampa Bay's defense is overrated anyway. Tom Brady is having trouble while Aaron Rodgers is on fire. Lay the small number.

It seems odd to partly base a pick on a QB matchup that is unflattering to Tom Brady, but here we are. Aaron Rodgers has exceeded even his sparking history — 13 TD passes and zero interceptions says it all — while Brady is prone to inconsistency. Green Bay enters as the fresher team — 13 days off between gigs, compared to nine for the Bucs. Its offense’s average per play (6.83 yards) is unmatched and far exceeds Tampa Bay’s (5.6, 21st best.)