Baker Mayfield is playing despite apparently still dealing with sore ribs, which isn't ideal against a Steelers defense that has pressured the opposing QB more than any team. And it's not as if Mayfield has handled pressure well even when healthy. The Steelers, despite a 4-0 record, haven't been blowing teams away, but this is a spot where they'll look to make a statement at home against their AFC North rival that's been on a roll. Lay the three.

The key to this game is defense, specifically that of the Steelers. Third in the NFL in total defense and second in rushing defense, Pittsburgh should be able to slow down Cleveland's top-ranked rushing offense on Sunday. The Browns have seen a lot of success early in the sason, but their wins have come against three of the bottom 10 rushing defenses in the league. If the Steelers can frustrate them early, the Browns will go to the air, and that's not a good thing. Pittsburgh can get it done both ways on offense and should clear the field goal spread in a home game. I have the Steelers as a 5-point favorite at home.

One of four remaining unbeatens, the Steelers have benefitted from an easy schedule. Their opponents are 3-15-1. Facing a Browns team on a four-game win streak, this is Pittsburgh's first true challenge. In what will be a back-and-forth game, rely on the Steelers' ability to close out games as they cover again late.

Baker Mayfield is tough, but the question marks around the rib injury significantly increases the probability of the Browns having to go to a backup QB at any point. My model makes the Steelers -3.3 on a neutral field and -4.9 in a 2020 "home game". When you account for the injury concerns for Mayfield, it's a pretty easy decision to trust the model and lay the number with the Steelers at home.

The last time the Browns won in Pittsburgh, "School of Rock" starring Jack Black was the top-grossing movie in the USA that week. Yikes! Baker Mayfield is dealing with a ribs issue that could knock him out at anytime. Jarvis Landry has ribs and hip problems. Odell Beckham has an illness, but apparently not COVID-related. Even Kareem Hunt is banged up. I wanted to wait and see if this dropped to -3, but it might only rise. Mayfield is 0-4-1 ATS in his NFL career vs. teams at least four games above .500. The Steelers win their 17th in a row at home in the series -- by at least a TD.

In a game of matchups, the biggest one will occur along the line of scrimmage between the Browns' offensive line and the Steelers' pass rush. Cleveland wants to come in, run the football and let QB Baker Mayfield operate off play action. But, if the Steelers are able to slow down the ground game, that puts Mayfield in the crossfire of the pass rush, and he does not handle pressure particularly well. Also, Pittsburgh's offense is starting to find its rhythm and big-play capability. Lay the points.

The Browns have hit peak market price with four straight wins to their name, and now seems like the perfect time to fade. They're up against a team I think is clearly a tier above, and it's a bad matchup as the Steelers rank second in yards per rush allowed and first in rush defense DVOA. So Baker Mayfield, who looked banged up near the end of last week's game, will have to do the heavy lifting, but the Browns pass offense has been average, while the Steelers pass offense has not. I worry about the Browns' ability to play catch-up if needed; they haven't been down big in any of their four wins, but they might face that scenario against a strong D here.

Pittsburgh is a good-but-not-great team unlikely to stay unbeaten straight-up much longer. Receiving more than a field goal in a setting with a minuscule crowd — last Sunday’s numbered about 5,000 — is inviting. The Browns shrugged off the loss of RB Nick Chubb with 124 rushing yards and 32 points against the No.1-ranked defense (Indy) and stands fourth in league scoring at 31.2 ppg. The Steelers have fattened their 4-0 record with a soft schedule — the Giants, Broncos, Texans and Eagles have won an aggregate three games — and have traveled just once.