Cincy figures to score little, what with QB Joe Burrow under siege lately and the Colts’ unforgiving nature on defense. The unit’s yards yield each game is 26 better than the No. 2 stingiest squad. Completing the case for an Under is Indy’s offensive concerns. QB Philip Rivers is giving off signs of decreased arm power and less awareness in the pocket. The average rush of 3.6 yards ranks ahead of only one team.

The Colts may have put together a pair of blowout home wins against bad teams already, but I just don't think it's wise to make them huge favorites. Their offense isn't that good, ranking 24th in points per drive and 25th in DVOA. The Bengals pass defense has actually been solid to date, and that's helped Cincinnati stay in every game this season prior to the debacle against the Ravens. And even though the Colts defense has done a great job this year, Joe Burrow has shown the ability to cover through the backdoor late if needed. I don't necessarily think he'll have to do that here because I don't see the Colts scoring a ton of points, but it's nice to know he could.

I've always been a bigger fan of betting on a Philip Rivers team as an underdog than as a favorite. His teams have gone 41-52-2 ATS since 2010 when favored, and it's not hard to figure out why. Rivers turns the ball over a lot. It's hard to cover spreads when you're turning the ball over. The Colts defense is fantastic, but it's not unbeatable, as we saw last week against the Browns. Cincinnati isn't going to win this game, but it will do enough, and Rivers will toss an interception or two to help them stay within range.

Cincinnati could not protect QB Joe Burrow last week against Baltimore, allowing seven sacks. However, the Bengals' defense has gotten better over the last three weeks, and the Colts' offense hasn't particularly lit it up thus far this season. Indianapolis QB Philip Rivers still has issues protecting the football, so the Bengals' focus will be to load up to stop RB Jonathan Taylor and make Rivers beat them consistently through the air. This line is far too inflated for me to believe he can.