Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield's stats were above average for the last three games - all wins. The Browns rushed for 158 or more yards in each of the victories. Mayfield has always shined when the running game clicks. But with RB Nick Chubb (knee) out and the Colts sporting the sixth-ranked run defense in the league, this game will be on his shoulders. Indianapolis' defense is No. 1 overall in the NFL after four games. QB Philip Rivers' stats have been above average in three of his first four starts for the Colts.

My cohort RJ White wrote earlier this week in his pick that the wrong team was favored when it was Colts -1.5. I agreed. Alas, sometimes you get rewarded and sometimes penalized for waiting. Now it's a pick'em. I do think the Browns win here as Indy's top-ranked defense will be missing its heart and soul in All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard, and on the other side of the ball left tackle Anthony Castonzo is also out. Two pretty important players. Myles Garrett will eat Philip Rivers' lunch.

I think the wrong team is favored here. That Colts defense has looked awesome, but Indy's schedule has been pretty suspect. The Browns just scored 49 on the Cowboys, and before you remind me how bad the Cowboys defense is, they had actually been solid against the run heading into that game. The Browns O-line is just dominant right now, which makes me worry less about injuries at running back. Meanwhile, the Colts offense is not impressive at all, ranking 22nd in points per drive, 30th in third-down success rate and 28th in red-zone success rate. If that strong Browns D-line can get some pressure on Philip Rivers, I think this is game over, especially with the Colts ranking 32nd in yards per carry.

The Browns have come alive in their last three games after losing the opener 38-6 at Baltimore. They scored 34-points or more against the Bengals, Washingtons and Cowboys, who have three wins combined. They’ll be playing the No. 1 defense this week that allows the fewest passing yards. I look for the Colts offense to dink and dunk enough down the field to chew time off the clock and frustrate Baker Mayfield. Colts to cover.

The Colts have rebounded nicely after their Week 1 loss to Jacksonville. They enter this matchup against the Browns winners of three straight. Unfortunately for them, this will be the best offense they've faced all season long. Also, the Browns' defense has shown the ability to both pressure the QB and turn the ball over. Cleveland is playing a good brand of football right now, and it'll have the Browns playing winning football on Sunday.

The Browns are playing great under their new coach. They beat Dallas more soundly than the final score indicates. The Cowboys got their points late against a cheap, safe defense. Even though they're 3-1, the Browns are still kind of under the radar. Indy has a good defense but its top linebacker, Darius Leonard, is dealing with a groin injury.

First in total yards permitted and yards per play. Also, in passing yards allowed and yards per throw. Oh, yes, in points and first downs yielded. Those are merely the highlight stats associated with the peerless Indianapolis defense. Cleveland would have been slowed down with Nick Chubb. Without its ace RB (knee), the offense could relive its 2019 struggles. The Colts’ offense hardly dazzles, but QB Philip Rivers has settled comfortably into a game manager role. Take Indy.