Though Davante Adams is a major weapon that helps kick the Packers offense into another gear, they have enough weapons to make up for his absence. I have Green Bay as a 9-point favorite entering Monday night's game, so with the spread down a point, I'm getting an additional field goal. The Falcons are no healthier than the Packers, and Green Bay is firing on all cylinders. There's no way Atlanta's secondary stops Aaron Rodgers for four quarters.

This is a game between two offenses that have scored a bunch of points and two defenses that have allowed nearly as many. So of course I'm going to be on the Under. Things have to balance out soon, and on a windy night in Lambeau Field, it starts tonight.

If you were planning to back the Pack and waited until this morning, you have been rewarded with the spread dropping to -6 from -7. Part of that was Davante Adams ruling himself out, meaning Aaron Rodgers will be missing his top two wideouts in Adams and Allen Lazard. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan will have his top two banged-up wideouts in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. So while the Falcons might be better at that position, Green Bay is better just about everywhere else -- especially on defense. The Pack are 5-1 ATS in their past six at home.

Green Bay looks to be one of the top teams in the NFL this year. The Packers' offense is averaging over 30 points per game, and they are doing it with balance. Defensively, they are very active at the line of scrimmage, and they are also very opportunistic. While the Falcons have blown huge leads in their last two contests, they won't have to worry about that in this game, as Green Bay will own the lead from start to finish.

The Falcons are severely banged up in the secondary and facing a Packers team that leads the NFL in scoring. Green Bay has covered its three wins by an average of 11.5 points. This line is a bit short. Lay it.

I was higher than most on the Falcons coming into the season after their second-half improvements last year, thinking they could be solid defensively and good-to-great on the offensive side of the ball with their two first-round picks on the line entering their second year. But I don't know how the Falcons come back mentally after back-to-back meltdowns the scale of what we've seen of the last two weeks. The Packers defense hasn't played well enough to trust them on this big number against a solid team, but again, the Falcons will have to prove they can rebound mentally from the last two weeks.

Betting this total looks crazy, but the Falcons allow 463.3 yards and 36.0 points per game, and the Packers allow 28.3 points while scoring 40.7 per game. On Monday I fully expect both teams to play how they’ve played in the first three weeks and score fast and often. The NFL is calling less offensive holding calls, and every total is affected. The last five meetings have gone Over. Over is the play.

The Packers are going to crush them. Atlanta has no defense, and the Falcons' coach is toast, maybe after this week. The Packers are a scoring machine, averaging an NFL-best 40.7 points. Lay it.