Sometimes it's wise to bet a game early in the week and sometimes it's not. This one hurts because I loved Detroit at +4. The line likely has dropped because the Saints will be without arguably their best offensive (Michael Thomas) and defensive (Marshon Lattimore) players. Frankly, I'd buy a half-point to get to +3.5, but we think Detroit has a pretty good shot of the upset -- and NEVER turn down the points.

Forget buying into the idea that there's something significantly wrong with the Saints, which have lost two good teams over the last couple of weeks and are still one of my favorites to win the NFC. The Lions surprised with an upset of the Cardinals last week, but it took three truly awful interceptions by Kyler Murray to make that happen. This is still the team that got steam rolled by the Packers a couple weeks ago. Michael Thomas being out is no good for New Orleans, but Drew Brees still has plenty of weapons, namely Alvin Kamara. Saints roll.

The Saints have played a solid schedule so far as they've faced Tampa Bay, Las Vegas and Green Bay. They had over 120 yards in penalties against the Raiders and outgained the Packers by 0.5 yards per play but lost the turnover battle 1-0. Even without WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans has the better offense, as well as better personnel on defense. I'll also bank on the coaching mismatch of Sean Payton over Matt Patricia.

The Saints own the shiniest ATS road record in the past four-plus seasons. However, it was forged with teams healthier than this one and with a stronger-armed QB Drew Brees. In obvious decline, he is limiting downfield throws. The most serious absentee is Brees’ favorite batterymate, WR Michael Thomas (ankle). Five other starters, including both cornerbacks, are casualties. The Lions will be more relaxed after burying an 11-game losing streak.

This actually isn't the best spot for the Lions, as the Saints are getting desperate for a win while Detroit is coming off a good victory. But, boy, is New Orleans beat up. Six Saints starters have been ruled out, including both starting cornerbacks (Marshon Lattimore, Janoris Jenkins) and Michael Thomas. They'll also be without Marcus Davenport, Jared Cook and Andrus Peat. Drew Brees is clearly struggling without Thomas, and it will be a tall task for the Saints D to get stops. Grab the points.

I will continue to back the Saints because I don't think they can go from the presumptive favorites to win the NFC to being a bad team in the span of a month. This is a perfect matchup for them to get right, and here's why: Detroit has the highest opponent passer rating on throws less than five yards down the field, which lines up with the Saints' strength. Plus, the Lions are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, so Alvin Kamara should have a field day. The Lions needed a +3 turnover margin to barely beat the Cardinals, but New Orleans doesn't turn the ball over (at least, not unless Taysom Hill is under center). The Saints should cover here more often than not.

The Lions just broke their 11-game losing streak, but they still have problems in their secondary and they're facing a New Orleans team that should get Michael Thomas back. Alvin Kamara may be the best back in the league right now. I don't think Detroit's defense has an answer for him.