While a few lines have changed to where I don't like games, this one changed to where I do -- Bengals under a field goal. I might have worried if Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon (chest) was out, but he will play. Despite being 0-3, Joe Burrow & Co. are one point from being 3-0 against the spread. The former Heisman winner gets his first NFL victory here.

This number has inflated to nearly to 50, which is illogical with a team (Jacksonville) that plays at the league’s slowest pace. Expect the Jaguars to adhere to the ground, given Cincinnati's defense stops the pass better than the run. Joe Burrow might be missing RB Joe Mixon (chest), which would place extra burden on the rookie QB. Two of the three games for both teams have finished below this figure.

The Jaguars are coming off a Thursday night dud, but they'll roll into this one with extra rest against a team that just played 70 minutes of football with a quarterback who has thrown 105 passes over the last two weeks. Joe Burrow is obviously a young player at peak health, but at some point doesn't his arm have to start feeling a little bit of fatigue? Either way, I think the Jags are clearly the better team right now. Cincy is bottom two in both yards per pass attempt and yards per rush on offense, so the Jags defense actually has a chance of looking decent. If we get the Gardner Minshew from the first two weeks, we'll wonder why the Jags weren't favored.

The Jaguars had extra rest while the Bengals played five full quarters at Philadelphia. Look for Jacksonville's offense, which should get No. 1 wideout D.J. Chark back from a chest injury, to bounce back from a poor performance in the Thursday night spotlight. Grab the points.