The Broncos have their five best players out for this one, but I think the defense will play well at home. And between QB Jeff Driskel and RB Melvin Gordon I think they can make a few drives and run some clock but settle for field goals. Denver has stayed Under in 12 of its last 16 home games. This Under bet is about the Broncos defense and the mile-high altitude.

The Broncos have battled a bunch of injuries each and every week, yet they've covered both their games despite starting 0-2 SU. Jeff Driskel did a good job in relief last week, keeping his team close against a strong Steelers defense. He should be able to use his legs more this week as Denver builds their offensive gameplan around him. The Bucs have been inconsistent defensively, while Tom Brady hasn't really impressed with his new team yet. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS as a home 'dog under Vic Fangio, and I like them to pull off another cover here, as I think this line is a couple points too high.

The Broncos will start Jeff Driskel at quarterback over the injured Drew Lock. It will be unfortunate for Driskel that he can't throw to star WR Courtland Sutton, who also is lost for the year. We saw the Bucs offense start to find its rhythm against Carolina last week. Defensively, they've been much better than expected. Their defense will be the story after this week in Denver.

It's hard to see the Broncos scoring a bunch of points in this game with Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton and Phillip Lindsay all on the sidelines. The Bucs defense has played pretty well this year despite the Saints scoring 34 points in Week 1, and they've shown last year's elite performance against the run wasn't a fluke. It's possible Tom Brady ruins this Under pick on his own, but I don't see the Bucs running up the score at altitude against a Broncos team that will be looking to get to the next week while focusing on getting healthier. Even though Jeff Driskel's performance last week gives me a little pause, this looks like great value on the Under.