You will read a lot about Patrick Mahomes vs. Deshaun Watson before this game, but I'm more curious about Watson vs. a Chiefs defense that has held opponents to 11.5 points per game during their six-game win streak (5-0-1 ATS). Watson & Co. will do better than that, particularly with Will Fuller back, but I see 35-37 points for Kansas City at home with Andy Reid coming off a bye. There is such a dramatic coaching advantage in this game for the Chiefs that I'm comfortable laying double digits at this enhanced spread, but try to get 9 or 9.5 if it's out there before kickoff.

Don't let the Chiefs' recent playoff history scare you. And throw out their home loss to Houston in Week 6, as they were missing several key players due to injuries and still managed to average more yards per play than the Texans. Houston was fortunate to get past Buffalo last weekend and its DVOA is by far the worst among the remaining playoff teams. Expect Kansas City to post its fourth straight double-digit victory.

As I've mentioned here numerous times in other picks, since Andy Reid took over in Kansas City, the Under has gone 36-17-1 when the Chiefs are favored at home. Now, a battle between Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson changes the calculus a bit, but while the snow is gone, it will still be cold and windy in Arrowhead on Sunday afternoon. This total is just a little too high.

In Week 6 at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs jumped out to a 17-3 first-quarter lead against the Texans and then they just fell flat and lost 31-24. The Texans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games and the Chiefs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home playoff games and only 2-10 ATS in their last 12 playoff games overall. However, I love the way the Chiefs regrouped in the second half of the season to win and cover their last six games. I'm backing the Chiefs to get the cover.

Yes, the Chiefs defense is playing much better than what we saw from them in the first matchup with the Texans. We'll see if Will Fuller plays for Houston in this game, as he can make a huge difference in the outcome. Regardless though, I think Houston's vertical attack style on offense, in conjunction with QB Deshaun Watson, makes this a tighter game than the line indicates. Take the Texans.

The Texans are by far the worst team left in the playoff field, per weighted DVOA, while the Chiefs are the second-best behind Baltimore. The Chiefs' biggest advantage comes in the passing game, where they should be able to throw it all over Houston and run up a double-digit lead if they get any help from their defense. And I expect that to happen, as the Chiefs defense has been playing really well of late, particularly after their Week 12 bye. The Texans went into Kansas City and won earlier this year, and I can't see them taking the Chiefs by surprise a second time. I'll lay as many points as you want here.

The last time the Chiefs played Houston, Patrick Mahomes was playing on a bum foot and they were missing a lot of key players. Andy Reid's record off a bye is outstanding. During their six-game win streak, the Chiefs have allowed 11.5 points per game. Houston's secondary will not be able to deal with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. No way. Houston is coming off an overtime game and didn't really deserve to win last week, while K.C. is rested. Lay the points.

Most of Houston’s team statistical rankings will not knock your stockings off because, when they are bad, the Texans are really bad. The upside, however, is treehouse-high, and the visitors have a lot going for them. DE J.J. Watt is rounding back info form. WR Will Fuller, whose absence against Buffalo was significant, is expected to return in his role of stretching the defense. QB Deshaun Watson has become a playmaker supreme who inspires confidence in the offense. Houston failed to cover in only two road games while Chiefs coach Andy Reid is on a 2-5 ATS playoff slide. Oh, and the Texans won at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 6.