Eight of the Texans' 10 wins came by just one score, five were by three points or less, and most of those were against lesser opponents than the Bills and Sean McDermott. Houston is just 2-6 ATS at home, while Buffalo is 6-1-1 ATS on the road. Will Fuller isn't the Texans' best WR, but they went 8-3 with him and 2-3 without him. In fact, Houston averaged 26.3 points and 296.8 passing yards with Fuller, and those numbers crashed to 19.3 points and 158.3 passing yards without him. Fuller isn't playing in this one, and the Bills are getting points. Grab the 2.5.

Buffalo has played five games against teams with a winning record and has gone 1-4 while averaging just 14.2 points per game. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson rates out three points better than the average quarterback while Buffalo's Josh Allen, who will be playing his first playoff game, was one point below average. Defensive lineman J.J. Watt returns for Houston, which is a one-point upgrade for the Texans defense. I have Houston.

This line may hit and even pass the key number as we get closer to kickoff. While the Bills deserve respect for their defensive acumen, I do not see how they can score enough points to beat the Texans. That's not to say Houston is a bunch of world beaters, but I trust Deshaun Watson in this spot, and their weapons are better. J.J. Watt returning helps, and there is talent on that Texans defense. Unless the Bills manage a defensive score, I'm not sure how they stay within the small number here.

Though the overall stats point to the Bills as the better team and though I have concerns about the Texans defense, there are two key factors I can't get over. One: The Bills were 1-4 against playoff teams, with the only win against the Titans before their QB change when they were clearly not playoff-caliber. Two: Strength of schedule clearly favors the Texans (sixth, per Football Outsiders) over the Bills (30th), key for two teams with identical records. Throw in a secretly-important injury issue for Buffalo with Levi Wallace nursing an ankle sprain, and I expect the Texans to get it done at home.

The Bills have been impressive defensively, but they face a supreme challenge trying to stop Deshaun Watson. He thrives in pressure situations, and I trust him here more than second-year QB Josh Allen. Lay the small number.

Buffalo got some key guys hurt last week in a meaningless game. J.J. Watt is coming back for Houston and I think the Bills will struggle to score. Deshaun Watson will have a decent game, Carlos Hyde will do some damage on the ground and the Texans will win.

Finally, Buffalo is getting some respect from the public, but it’s too much. Houston’s frequent flubs in the wild-card round -- the Texans have covered just once in the last five postseason outings -- have depressed this line to below a field goal. The Bills have been impressive but their offense can’t hold a candle to Houston’s. If DE J.J. Watt returns after being written off for the season with a pectoral muscle injury, the morale boost would be incalculable. Lay the points.