Forget the playoff ramifications for the Raiders. The Broncos are not going to pack it in and give up on the season in a home game against a massive rival. Especially not when they are trying to evaluate Drew Lock as their potential long-term option behind center. Denver should be favored by 6+ points in this game, and while I would love this to be a half-point lower, there is still a ton of value with the Broncos. Oakland does not have a good enough defense for the spread to be this close in Mile High.

It is amazing that the Raiders have a slim shot at the final AFC playoff spot. They need to win here and have Houston beat Tennessee, Baltimore top Pittsburgh and Indianapolis defeat Jacksonville. The problem is, that scenario has dropped the betting line to just -3.5. The Broncos have the better defense, a solid home-field advantage, a rookie QB that has supplied some energy and the motivation of knocking one of their rivals out of the chase.

The last four meetings between the Broncos and the Raiders have seen Oakland cover and the game stay under the total. But let’s be real about the Raiders right now. With running back Josh Jacobs doubtful and his team going 1-4 straight up in its last five and 1-5 against the spread in its last six... the Raiders are a tough play. They can make the playoffs with all kinds of scenarios happening, but the biggest one is Oakland actually winning this game -- and I don’t see it. This is the revived Broncos with rookie quarterbackDrew Lock, and they get the job done.

Everything went according to plan last week for the Raiders to remain in the playoff hunt. Obviously, they have to take care of business here first. The Broncos are playing for pride and the satisfaction of ending a division rival's season. I don't envision the Raiders laying a complete egg in this game. The half-point is what makes me hesitant to pick Denver to cover.

Raiders rookie Hunter Renfroe has emerged as a big weapon, and Derek Carr is coming off a brilliant game. He's not turning the ball over. I don't trust Drew Lock in this game. He's beaten bad teams. Plus, Oakland is getting some key players back from injury. Take the points.

The Broncos are 3-1 SU and ATS since Drew Lock took over, the only stumble coming at Kansas City, which is understandable. Denver is playing with revenge and would love nothing more than to squash Oakland's slim playoff hopes. Derek Carr always struggles in cold weather (65.9 passer rating when the temperature is below 50), and we saw it again in Weeks 11-12 at the Jets and Chiefs. The forecasted high for Sunday in Denver is 40. Lay it.

This line has been compressed by the fact that Oakland remains alive in the playoff chase while Denver’s hopes are dead. But the Raiders show barely a pulse and, at a points differential of minus 105, have no business being in this position. Drew Lock, considered a placeholder, is making a case as the long-term Broncos QB. They are 3-1 with him starting, the only loss coming at Kansas City. Denver is on an 8-3 ATS roll and, last Sunday’s Oakland win aside, is the superior team.