Though Aaron Rodgers has not historically fared well in Minnesota, I'm rolling with Green Bay getting a generous 4.5 points in this spot. The line is right on ... if the Vikings were playing with Dalvin Cook. Though I think Mike Boone will do moderately well in relief, Minnesota is going to have to adjust its game plan to rely more on Kirk Cousins ... in primetime ... on Monday night ... against an opponent over .500. That's not normally a recipe for success, and the Vikings defense has not been as ferocious as in years past. The Packers are healthy and pushing for playoff position. Plus, since I'm getting points with Rodgers, the backdoor cover is always in play if things go awry.

In order for this game to go over, Aaron Rodgers will need to have a fantastic game. Now, he's Aaron Rodgers, so it can definitely happen, but there haven't been a lot of signs this year that show it's likely to. The Vikings defense keeps the Packers offense in check, but it's always hard to trust Kirk Cousins in huge spots, so the Under seems like the safest bet.

The Vikings have yet to lose at home this season and are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Packers, with all five staying under the total. Minnesota hasn’t fared well against winning teams with QB Kirk Cousins, but the Packers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a road underdog. The Vikings also have revenge on their minds and a division title in sight.

Kirk Cousins doesn't perform well in the Monday night spotlight. Green Bay hasn't been terrific, but the Packers are 11-3 and they've already beaten Minnesota once. No way I'm laying points with Cousins on Monday night.

I believe the Vikings are the better team overall, but in a big divisional game I like getting these points with the Packers. Minnesota's big win last week was more about the Chargers making the kind of errors that Aaron Rodgers doesn't make too often. I believe he can move the ball on the Minnesota defense, and on the other side, I like how Green Bay matches up with the Vikings receivers. This should be a close one that stays within four points either way.