It should be tough for the Steelers to put up a lot of points here against the Jets' stout run defense and with Jamal Adams returning after missing two games due to injury. Duck Hodges just isn't likely to light it up through the air. The Jets are 4-2 at home when Sam Darnold starts, and with such a low total, getting more than a field goal seems like good value. Grab the points.

The Under is 16-5 in Pittsburgh's last 21 games - 11-3 overall this season and 6-0 on the road. The average score in the Steelers' last six is 15.5-15. Pittsburgh QB Devlin "Duck" Hodges' red-zone numbers are well below average. Pittsburgh owns the fourth-best defense in yards allowed per play and third in yards allowed per rush. The Jets will look to turn RB Le'Veon Bell loose against his former team. New York's defense ranks sixth in yards allowed per play and first in yards allowed per rush.

This total is very low, but even if these teams just score what they’ve been averaging per game, it would go slightly Under the 37. And that’s not factoring in that we’ve got the No. 3 defense by DVOA on one side with the Steelers, and the No. 2 defense in stopping the run with the Jets. Take the Under.

After Duck Hodges' ill-advised throws versus Buffalo, look for Pittsburgh to play extremely conservatively. This is a matchup of two stout defenses. Go Under before it dips below this key number.

Here we have two offenses that rank in the bottom three of DVOA, and one defense that ranks in the top three. That means we won't see much scoring at all. The Jets are No. 1 in yards per rush allowed on defense, so it's on Duck Hodges to move the ball through the air on the road, something I don't see happening with regularity. On the other side, the Steelers defense hasn't given up 300 yards in any of their last five games or more than 17 points in any of their last four. This game is tailor made to be a low-scoring affair.