Forget the names of the teams, given that one (New England) tends to be overbet historically and the other (Buffalo) tends to be overlooked, as its 9-4-1 ATS record attests. Any underdog by nearly a touchdown and with the league’s third-ranked defense cannot be passed up. The ultra-low total (37.5) hints at a scarcity of points. While the Bills’ offense is hardly gangbusters, it is productive enough to put nearly 20 points on the board, which will challenge QB Tom Brady and his weapon-less unit. Take the Bills.

This is a matchup between the two best scoring defenses in the league, and with the Patriots offense failing to impress, I think this game has a great shot of going Under 37. It took a blocked punt touchdown to get the Patriots the win in their last meeting, and that game only had 26 points scored. I expect this to be more of the same, a battle of field position where each team is looking to avoid critical mistakes at all cost. That points to yet another Under for the Bills, who have seen the total go Under in 11 of their 14 games this season.

The last three meetings have stayed Under the total, including the Patriots' 16-10 win in September. The Bills have gone 7-0-1 to the Under in their last eight road games. In their 14 games this season (10-4 ATS), 11 of them stayed Under the total. Tom Brady’s offense is still struggling. Under is the play.

The Bills defense dominated the Patriots offense in their first meeting, but a blocked punt changed the game, and turnovers by the Bills certainly didn't help. They've done a good job addressing that latter issue, giving the ball away just six times in 10 games since the Patriots loss. The Pats offense wasn't impressive against the Bengals, again feasting off turnovers, and they've now gained less than 300 yards in four of their last five games. This is going to be a low-scoring game (just look at the total), which makes it harder for either team to win by multiple scores. As long as the Bills protect the ball, this is going to be a close game.

You've got two really good defenses here and two teams that struggle to score. Julian Edelman isn't right for the Patriots. The first matchup ended 16-10, Patriots. This will be another low-scoring affair.

Earlier in the season, the Bills played the Patriots very tough, losing 16-10. Buffalo QB Josh Allen got knocked out of that game, and for that reason, the Bills faithful has hope in this meeting. But New England still has a tough defense and is still in play for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Expect the Patriots to play this one extremely tough.