Light rain is a possibility at Jacksonville on Sunday, and winds are expected to be up. But I’m still playing the Over with the Buccaneers because it happens every game, or at least it has in their last nine. Jameis Winston is the perfect Over QB because he makes lots of big plays and also lots of mistakes. Their average score this season is 30-28. I’m on the Over again.

The Jaguars have given up 101 points in their last three games. And against Tampa Bay's pass-funnel defense, this will be Nick Foles' best game yet. Look for both passing attacks to move with ease and for the Bucs' to go Over for the 10th straight time.

Even though Jacksonville tends to struggle against NFC teams, I have to roll with them here after the huge line move to the Bucs, a Jekyll and Hyde team that can throw up a dud at any point. The public is all over Tampa Bay here, even though they were 0-6 ATS before beating a bad Falcons team last week. Jacksonville's biggest issue on defense is defending the run, but the Bucs don't have the rushing attack to take advantage. The Jags are coming off back-to-back road games against playoff contenders and Nick Foles should look better here at home against a shaky Bucs defense.

The Buccaneers have won two of their last three (preceded by a respectable OT loss at Seattle) while the Jaguars have been outscored by 22.3 points during the same span. Though prone to errors, Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston is a big-play QB. Jacksonville’s one-dimensional offense is unlikely to take full advantage of a porous defense. This will be a road game for the Bucs, but with a short in-state commute to North Florida. Take Tampa Bay.

The Jaguars are bad, especially their offensive line. They won't get the running game going against a Bucs team allowing 3.5 yards per carry. Jameis WInston has six straight games over 300 yards. He's going up against a terrible pass defense. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will light up the Jacksonville secondary.

The Over has cashed in nine straight Bucs games, and I'm going to go along for the ride here while it's less than 50. Jameis Winston has been great at hitting big plays for both teams in the passing game, while the Bucs' excellent run D forces teams to throw, which isn't a problem against Tampa Bay's suspect pass defense (though it appears to have improved after the team dumped Vernon Hargreaves). Nick Foles should have success at some point, and this seems like a much easier matchup after back to back road divisional games.