The Patriots do not lose many games, and it's even more rare that you get them at such a low number, no matter who or where they are playing. But there is a reason why New England is a slim road favorite at Houston, and that's because of its offense. That's not to say the Texans have been world beaters, especially not after they got decimated by the Ravens two games ago, but Deshaun Watson & Co. are 5-1 at home this season, 4-2 as underdogs. I'm getting the late hook. I'm taking the Texans.

Has QB Tom Brady ever had a weaker supporting cast in his 20 seasons with the Patriots? New England has averaged 16.7 points per game in the last three games, winning twice thanks to the defense. Houston benefits from having three additional days to game plan for the Pats. The Texans wield enough firepower to score in the 20s, which might be all that’s needed against the unthreatening Brady bunch. Take the Texans.

Lots of people are looking for any sign of demise in New England. They’re tired of watching the Patriots dominate seasons and winning Super Bowls. With the New England offense struggling the past few weeks, a few haters are suggesting the demise is underway. But the offense is still averaging 27.3 points per game, and the defense is dominating like never before, allowing just 10.6 points and 256.4 yards per game. That steady defense will help get the cover at Houston. The Texans are 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Take the Patriots.

Texans QB Deshaun Watson's best attribute is his fearlessness on the field. That's the type of mentality you must have when facing the Patriots. When you add the fact New England's offense isn't as explosive as in years past, you definitely can see a path for Houston to get the cover.

Bill Belichick has owned Bill O'Brien, and I doubt much is going to change in this matchup. The Patriots offense has been struggling but gets a much easier defensive matchup here. Houston's defense is 26th in DVOA, 31st on third downs and 32nd in the red zone, which screams like a get-right spot for Tom Brady and company. On the other side, I don't expect an offense that ranks 15th in DVOA and has played an easy schedule to solve the Patriots' top-rated defense. Belichick continues to build on a great record indoors or under a retractable roof (17-6 ATS since 2001) and rolls in Houston.