The Browns' slim playoff hopes have little room for error. Expect the offense to blossom, and look for the defense to spoil Ryan Fitzpatrick’s birthday as the Browns play their most complete game since a win over Baltimore. Cleveland covers.

The Browns' weakness on defense is defending the run, but unfortunately, the Dolphins don't have even the potential of a running game to take advantage. So why take the Dolphins? The Browns are massive favorites coming off a weak of distractions and with a rematch against the Steelers on tap for next week. I can't imagine they'll be focused here, and with Myles Garrett, Larry Ogunjobi and Olivier Vernon out, they won't be able to get their normal pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick, who can easily get us a backdoor cover if we need it.

The Browns are down most of their starting defensive line with Olivier Vernon still injured and Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi suspended. That should allow the Dolphins to score into the 20s as Ryan Fitzpatrick shouldn't feel much pressure. On the other side, the Dolphins defensive line has the worst adjusted sack rate in the league, so a Browns O-line that has had its issues throughout the year shouldn't be tested much either. These teams should blow past this total, but if needed we should get garbage-time scoring to push us over.

For this game to eclipse the total, Cleveland needs to score in the mid-to-high 20s, a feat it has attained just twice this season -- more recently five games ago. The ballyhooed offense with QB Baker Mayfield and WR Odell Beckham Jr. has been a mini-bust. As for Miami, prior to last Sunday, it played three consecutive games that ended under this number. Having cut RB Mark Walton this week, the Dolphins are devoid of a ground game. Both squads have pitched a tent in Under territory.