The Packers have won five of their last six and have proven they are capable of beating any team, but my play on the 49ers is more about the number. I get to lay only 3 points with the 9-1 49ers at home. They’ve looked vulnerable the past three weeks, with Arizona’s offense doing what it wanted and the Seahawks beating them, but these teams are not as even as the spread suggests. I'm thinking more like San Francisco at -5 here. Plus, the 49ers get a boost with TE George Kittle practicing this week and likely to start Sunday. I’m on the cheap price with San Francisco.

Over his career, Aaron Rodgers has been marvelous at moving around in the pocket, and using his legs to buy time. While he's hardly a statue, that's a talent of his that has dwindled in recent years, which is bad news for him against a 49ers pass rush that is one of the best in the NFL. ARod and the Packers offense is going to have a difficult time moving the ball against this San Francisco team, while the Niners should be able to run the ball well, therefore lightening the load on Jimmy G.

My model says that the 49ers cover the spread 58 percent of the time, so you're getting good value playing San Francisco at this point spread. The 49ers rebounded from their first loss of the season to post their sixth double-digit victory of the year last week. Green Bay also bounced back from a defeat, but QB Aaron Rodgers will be facing the NFL's top-ranked pass defense in this one. Take San Francisco.

While teams playing a road game after a bye has been a strong trend, I think we have to go with the 49ers here. They've been the better all-around team this year, ranking seventh in points per drive on offense and second on the other side of the ball. The Packers' defense has been hit or miss despite the team's record and, in particular, has struggled to defend the run. That's how the 49ers stacked wins early in the season, and I expect them to return to that strategy in this matchup. That will help alleviate injury concerns in the passing game as well, and if the 49ers' talented D-line does its job, the home team should win.