Going against the Patriots in New England -- particularly at less than a full touchdown -- is largely considered foolish. That's fine. While I think the Pats defense is the best unit in the game, there's no question that they are suffering offensively in the passing game. Dak Prescott is mobile enough to keep drives alive for the Cowboys, and this game is going to be played in tough conditions -- so I like Ezekiel Elliott to keep the chains moving. It's not so much that I expect Dallas to win -- though I will sprinkle some on it straight up -- but I do like it to cover a close game. The Cowboys have only lost one game by more than four points this season, and that was to a far higher-powered offense in Green Bay.

Patriots games have gone under the total 70% of the time, and when you add in that there's a good chance of rain and strong winds, there shouldn't be a lot of scoring in this one. The Cowboys have a great offense, but they'll face the league's No. 1 defense. It should be tough sledding for both teams. Take the Under.

There is going to be heavy rain, and I expect both defenses to keep this a low-scoring game with the running games being featured. In that situation, the Cowboys may have the edge with a running game that averages 131.9 yards per game compared to the Patriots' 91.0. Dak Prescott can run and create his own plays. The Patriots offense has looked off the past few weeks, and rain won't help it. Under is the top play here.

What are we doing here? This is Bill Belichick vs. Jason Garrett in Foxborough and we don't even have to lay a full touchdown? I'm not worried at all about Tom Brady's health after he popped up on the injury report as questionable this week, and I certainly think the Patriots' No. 1 defense can give Dak Prescott some trouble. The Patriots offense hasn't looked well lately, but the Dallas defense is 20th in DVOA and missing Leighton Vander Esch, so New England should be able to cook up something to score some points. The Patriots D is too good to let teams in the backdoor, allowing just two offensive TDs in the second half all year.

The public has yet to pick up on the notion that New England’s offense, like the old gray mare, ain’t what she used to be. The Patriots’ yards-per-carry number is 30th lowest in the league, and Tom Brady’s receiving corps leaves much to be desired. The Under has prevailed in 16 of the Pats’ last 22 outings. Dallas’ offense is kicking tail, but key offensive linemen La’el Collins and Zach Martin are iffy with assorted injuries.

New England's defense matches up well with the Cowboys' strength -- their passing game. Tom Brady isn't looking good so I don't expect the Pats to light it up either. Go Under.

It's been well-documented how the Patriots struggle against mobile QBs. Dallas' Dak Prescott definitely fits that category and is playing at an MVP-type level as far as passing goes. I worry about the Cowboys' defense in this game, but not enough to think they can't cover the spread against New England.