Let's take advantage of some overreactions. The first: The Raiders are suddenly great after beating up on the Broncos in a raucous atmosphere on Monday Night Football. The second: The Chiefs are doomed without Tyreek Hill. Yes, Oakland's performance was awesome last week, but let's not forget that Kansas City beat up on a good Jacksonville defense to the tune of 40 points on the road. Going across the country is not ideal for KC, but it has so much offensive talent that getting it as a touchdown favorite is a discount worthy of a wager. Look for the Chiefs to cover the TD.

In 17 regular season games since the start of last season, Chiefs games have totaled at least 53 points 12 times. The Raiders allowed the most points in the NFL a year ago, and though they’ve upgraded at spots and handled the Broncos in Week 1 (but lost first-rounder Johnathan Abram for the season), the scoreboard in Oakland will be much busier this week. The Chiefs’ defense just got sliced up by sixth-round rookie Gardner Minshew. The Over is the play.

The Chiefs have now covered their last eight September games, but the Raiders have held their own in this rivalry, covering twice in their last four. And I have a feeling this year's Raiders are much better than any of those past four games. This will be the Chiefs' last visit to Oakland, and I’m looking for a competitive battle. Top observations from last week were the Raiders' great offensive line and quarterback play and the Chiefs allowing 428 yards to an offense mostly run by a rookie quarterback. I’m on the Raiders.

It looks like it's going to be another year of playing Chiefs Overs, as their defense was picked apart by a sixth-round rookie QB pressed into action after an injury. Their offense will still be able to score plenty without Tyreek Hill, and the Raiders offense performed much better than expected on Monday night. Another 40-26 final in a Chiefs game wouldn't surprise me at all.

The market is overreacting to the loss of Tyreek Hill and the Raiders primetime win over the Broncos. Kansas City is still loaded on offense without Hill, and this Raiders offense is going to struggle to keep up. This game might be competitive into the third quarter, but Kansas City will pull away. Lay it with the road favorite.

The Raiders face a much tougher offensive test this week. Even without Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs have a slew of explosive weapons. Look for a tight game early before the Chiefs run away with this one late.