There's a lot of credit given to defenses early in the season, but coming out of practices that are not as filled with contact as they used to be, I always look for slip-ups by units like this. It should tell you something that the Bears are only moderate favorites, basically only getting credit for homefield advantage. Would've loved this at 3.5, but I'll ride with the (hopefully) rejuvenated Packers, featuring a new Matt LeFleur offense, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams & Co. Let's not forget that Green Bay also went out and strengthened its defense in the offseason. Give me the Pack.

The Bears didn't show much of their hand in the preseason. But if this club resembles the one that won 12 games last year, it should have a Week 1 edge over the Packers on Thursday night. Khalil Mack and friends terrorized Aaron Rodgers last season, and he will be adjusting to a new coach for the first time in his career. Versatile rookie RB David Montgomery should prove to be a viable weapon after the team parted ways with Jordan Howard.

The Bears were the much better of these two teams last year, but I'm not sure they'll have the offensive progress to counteract the expected step back on defense. We don't know what we'll get from Aaron Rodgers this year, but you have to like his chances of returning to form after an offseason of rest. I have the Packers as the slightly better team, and I'm not giving the full three points to Chicago for home-field, so that makes this a solid lean on the 'dog.

The Bears have the best defense in the NFL and the Packers are learning a new offense under coach Matt LaFleur. Even with the offensive-minded LaFleur, the Packers loaded up on defense this offseason, bringing in defensive ends Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith, as well as safety Adrian Amos. They also drafted safety Darnell Savage in the first round. This is the black & blue division and it starts Thursday Night.

As a general rule in football, a well-run offense is a matter of timing and repetition. Defense, on the other hand, is about reacting to what you see. Well, Aaron Rodgers didn't play a snap of football in the preseason, and the Bears offensive starters spent most of their time wearing baseball hats on the sidelines as well. Neither offense will be very sharp when the season opens Thursday night.

The Packers have covered 12 of the last 17 meetings with the Bears, but two of the five they didn't cover happened last season when the Bears went 12-4 to win the division. The Bears finished last season on a 9-2 ATS run and I expect them to be better in 2019. If liking the Bears to win and cover Thursday, bet it sooner than later because -3.5 is coming. Let's call the Bears 1.5-points better than the Packers on a neutral field and give them 2.5-points for home field. Bears -4 looks like the number. I'm backing the Bears to cover.