Joe Flacco will miss again and Lamar Jackson will QB once again and that's the only reason I'm taking the Falcons who have lost their last three. The Ravens have won their last two, but the Raiders or Bengals weren't capable enough to expose Jackson. Falcons are the play.

The days of pinball-machine scoring in Atlanta games are gone, at least for now. The Falcons followed games of 41 and 44 with a modest 48-pointer with New Orleans. They sorely miss RB Devonta Freeman, on injured reserve since week five. Baltimore’s rookie QB Lamar Jackson has yet to set the world afire, and the aversion to passing shortens the game. The Ravens’ top RB tandem, Gus Edwards (ankle) and Alex Collins (foot), are ailing.

After the Ravens opened as three-point favorites, I expected a big line move toward Atlanta. Now that the line seems to have settled, I'm jumping on the Ravens. They're clearly the better team, and in this matchup we're getting one of the best defenses in football (first in points, yards, first downs, net yards per attempt) against one of the worst (No. 32 in DVOA, No. 31 in rush DVOA, No. 30 in yards per carry). Think of the Ravens as a better version of the Browns, a team that ran all over the Falcons en route to a win a few weeks ago.

The Ravens offense has been more explosive with Lamar Jackson at QB instead of Joe Flacco, but I'm skeptical it can continue for very long. If you run a one-dimensional offense, NFL defenses will figure out ways to take that dimension away from you and force you to try something else. That's why I rolling with the Falcons here. Lamar's been fine at home, but this spread is an overreaction to Baltimore's last two games.

Whether Ravens head coach John Harbaugh decides to go back to Joe Flacco (no) or remain with Lamar Jackson at QB (yes), this game will be all about the Ravens defense applying pressure against Matt Ryan. The veteran QB goes through spurts within the season of good pocket presence and skittish pocket presence. If the Ravens do what I think they will do at QB (Jackson), then that means the defense will remain well rested and aggressive when they need to get key stops.