Cannot believe I am rolling with a Jameis Winston-led team as my first 1 p.m. pick of the day, but here we are with the Bucs taking on 49ers team that is overrated and on the road. Tampa Bay should be favored by the typical three at home, and while I do not think Winston is the answer, he is able to get the ball to his team's best playmakers. The 49ers might keep this close initially, but this is a game in which the Bucs can exorcise some demons and pick up a much-needed victory

Wise guys in Las Vegas are playing the 49ers showing how they feel about a bad defense like Tampa Bay despite a west coast team playing a 10 a.m. PT start time where the body clock is off a bit. But I think the better play is the Over. Tampa's offense will score despite Jameis Winston at QB. The Bucs are 8-2 to the Over this season and the 49ers have shown the ability to move the ball. Over is the top play here.

This number would be justified with plenty of teams against Tampa Bay. Not San Francisco, though. The 49ers rank below average (18th) for points scored per game, and its defense is 10th best for yards allowed. Props to QB Neil Mullens for filling in admirably for Jimmy Garoppolo, but he hardly strikes fear in any defense. The Bucs draw inflated totals for home games, which explains their 11-4 Under streak. They continue to toggle between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston at QB, an approach that is unsustainable.

The 49ers are better than we think; they led with a minute to go in each of their last three games despite going 1-2 in that stretch, and they led in the fourth quarter on the road against the Packers and Chargers. All that came after the Jimmy Garoppolo injury, and it's a testament to Kyle Shanahan and the quietly solid roster John Lynch has built. The 49ers pass defense is playing well, and I don't expect a huge performance from Jameis Winston, who's getting yo-yoed in and out the lineup. Take the hook here while you can.