A three-point drop in the total has created a buy opportunity on the Over. Look for the Lions to finally get their offense back on track and the Bears to continue to have simplistic scoring drives led by Mitch Trubisky.

The Lions have gone 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against winning teams and they're currently on a two-game losing streak while the Bears have won and covered their last two. But I'm starting to believe the Bears 5-3 record is more about just having a weak schedule. The Bills, Jets, Bucs and Cards are four of those wins. this might be an outright Lions win like last season in Chicago. Lions get the cover.

The Lions mustered just two drives of 30-plus yards against Minnesota, with Matthew Stafford getting sacked 10 times. Khalil Mack is coming back Sunday and the Bears are going to keep Stafford under duress. Lay it.

I think the Detroit offense could turn in their third dud in a row considering now they have to face the league's best defense outdoors in what could be poor weather. The Lions are just 2-6-1 ATS this decade when the weather gets below 40 degrees. I think the Bears cover easily, but I don't expect 30+ points from them in this matchup. This could be a similar game to the Lions' 24-9 loss to the Vikings last week where the Under cashes easily.

Chicago has the best defense in football, and it's getting Khalil Mack back. Detroit has one of the worst defenses in football by DVOA, points allowed per drive or most metrics you want to dig up. Will the Detroit offense balance the scales? Well, the Bears offense has actually played better than their counterparts this year, and they'll also have Allen Robinson back for this one, while the Lions are still living in life after Golden Tate. The Lions haven't played well on the road, and I can't see them rising up against this defense. Bears win easy.

Detroit always plays Chicago tough. Jordan Howard is not playing that well for Chicago. I think they’ll be closer than the number. Take the points with Detroit.