The Pats are 3-0 ATS at home this season, while the Chiefs enter Sunday night's game 5-0 ATS overall. Something's got to give. Many will point to Bill Belichick having 10 days to prepare for Kansas City and New England's tremendous ATS record at home, but the genius of Andy Reid in KC is that his game plan changes drastically week to week. It's not if Belichick can prepare for Reid, it's whether he can adjust to him at halftime. The Chiefs have scored against better defenses than the Pats', and yes, New England has lit up way better defenses than the one Kansas City brings to town. I truly believe this game could go either way, and thus, I'll take the points. If you can buy up to four on your service, that is highly advisable. The favorite on SNF is 1-7-1 ATS over the last nine.

The Chiefs have covered nine straight games and Patrick Mahomes has accounted for 16 touchdowns against two turnovers. Despite their big wins the past two weeks, the Patriots aren't what they were last year. Grab the points.

The Patriots should take care of business in this matchup, dealing the Chiefs their first lost of the year and covering without too much trouble. It's a revenge spot for Bill Belichick after losing in the opener last year, and he'll find a way to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs defense isn't playing well despite last week's result, and Justin Houston is missing practice and might not play. Patriots take advantage of the long week after playing on Thursday and roll behind their run game. They could win this one by double digits.

The Patriots have won and covered all three of their home games, but at the same time, they've lost both road games as favorites by double digits. The reasonable doubt is there despite the amazing Patriots track record during the Tom Brady era. I also have a 42-27 Chiefs win at New England last season to suggest Andy Reid has something for Bill Belichick. Most of all, the Chiefs have won and covered all five games (depending on which line you got for MNF at Denver). No other team is 5-0 ATS, so why predict something to happen when it hasn't yet. Chiefs get the cover.

So, one team is undefeated straight-up, already with road wins against the L.A. Chargers, Pittsburgh and Denver -- yet it is on the receiving end of a field-goal plus. Say no more. Except this: QB Patrick Mahomes and pals have sliced through defenses equal to or better than New England’s. A pair of wins at home appears to have left the public head-over-heels with the Patriots, a common occurrence. Until the Chiefs falter, take the points.