Not getting the best value here, but Houston is way better than it looked last week at New England, and I watched all seven hours of Tennessee struggle on the road in Miami. The Titans are exceedingly banged up, not only losing their starting tight end but also a starting offensive lineman, plus Marcus Mariota will either be out or significantly hobbled in the game. Let's not forget what these Texans and Deshaun Watson are capable of doing. Four points on the road is a tough spot, but I believe in one of these teams and absolutely do not believe in the other.

It's not so much Marcus Mariota's injury that pushed me to the Texans, even following the line move. It's that Mariota (or Blaine Gabbert) will be playing behind an O-line missing its starting tackles. Look for Deshaun Watson to start hot and Houston to roll.

Marcus Mariota (elbow) and DeShaun Watson (concussion) are both expected to play, so what gives with this number? By saying the Texans are -2.5 on the road it's saying the Texans are rated at least five points better than the Titans (home field +2.5). Is that true? Heck no it's not. But perception is reality here after one week of play -- the public loves Houston this week, mixed in with maybe a hint of overrating Watson's actual worth. I'll take the value and the Titans.

The Titans offense was not impressive at all in Week 1 against a defense that probably isn't that good. They had just one offensive TD the entire game, and Marcus Mariota looked out of sorts even before his injury. The Titans are dealing with several key injuries, but the biggest name guys are on offense, which helps depress the total. The Texans offense also didn't look great in Week 1 and could struggle to block all year. Both top receivers are also dealing with injuries that could limit their effectiveness. Houston's second straight road game to open the season could also work against their offense.

The Texans should have wideout Will Fuller back and that makes a big difference. Deshaun Watson came on in the second half last week and played decently against the Patriots, and I think he'll be much better this week. Tennessee's injury list is scary. Delanie Walker is out for the year and he's a big part of their offense.