The Chargers are overvalued in this matchup against the Chiefs. Sure, the defense isn't great and Mahomes doesn't have a ton of game experience, but Andy Reid is a great coach. The Chiefs should never be more than a 3-point dog to this Chargers team. Tyreek Hill will make the difference. Take the points.

There's a real chance this matchup will be missing Joey Bosa (foot) and Eric Berry (heel), or have one or the other play at less than 100 percent. That's good news in a matchup where I liked the Over anyway, as the Chiefs have an extremely high ceiling on offense and the Chargers should be able to move the ball consistently. We're getting this right on a key number for totals (six TDs and two FGs), so I'm hopping on it now before it can move if either star player is ruled out.

Kansas City has beaten San Diego eight straight times. Everybody's in love with the Chargers. Let them beat the Chiefs before we anoint them. The Chiefs' offense is going to put points on the scoreboard. The Chargers don't have a real homefield advantage -- they don't have a real home field.

Six of the past eight meetings between the Chiefs and Chargers have stayed Under the total, with the Chiefs winning all eight games, which not so coincidentally were quarterbacked by the conservative Alex Smith. Now Smith is in Washington and the Pat Mahomes era starts. I believe it's going to a more electrifying KC offense while also being more volatile with Mahomes' mistakes. It's his tempo and the Chargers keeping up and taking advantage of short-field opportunities that will help get this game Over the total.

I think the Chiefs are being undervalued with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, as the upside is there for this to be a top-scoring offense. The Chargers made a great pickup in the draft with Derwin James, but I'm not sure they've fixed the run defense, and Corey Liuget's suspension doesn't help. Chiefs pound the ball in this matchup and put their defense in position to succeed despite question marks at cornerback. This will be a field goal either way.