My model suggests this line is very efficient from a projection standpoint. My concern is the overwhelming public support for Andy Dalton and the Bengals. With an efficient line making this a coin flip, I'm going to take this opportunity to fade the public to start the season. Andrew Luck has two capable tight-ends and T.Y. Hilton for big play upside. Fade the public and take the Colts.

Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck might be healthy for a change, but he is coated in rust, having not played since 2016. His most important protector is not so healthy; LT Anthony Castonzo (hamstring) is uncertain. The Colts’ projected starting RB: Jordan Wilkins. (Who?) This is no easy landing for new coach Frank Reich. Cincinnati gets little love from the public, as evidenced by a 6-2 ATS mark in the second half of ’17. The Bengals’ offense won’t keep Reich up at night, but his own unimposing defense will.

There seems to be a lack of buzz for the Bengals, while that's certainly not the case with the Colts and Andrew Luck. However, the Indy defense could be the worst in the league, and the Bengals have the talent to ring up points against it. I don't like not having Vontaze Burfict in this matchup, but the Bengals have enough pass-rush and secondary talent to cover against a mediocre offense. Bengals steal this win as Luck shakes off the rust.

Andrew Luck is back, maybe with some rust, and he's got a new head coach in Frank Reich. But I'm not sure the Colts are better than the Bengals, who had a good preseason. Andy Dalton threw four TD passes. I made the Colts -1 after giving them +2 for home field, so getting +3 is attractive value with the Bengals on Sunday.