This is still a big number to cover even after the Deshaun Watson injury. A Tom Savage-led team should not lay a full TD to anyone. Back the Colts, who should have won last week at Cincy.

Look for a deflated home effort from the Texans following the injury loss of Deshaun Watson and for the Colts' defense to capitalize off of Tom Savage and the Texans.

The Texans’ defense, which has declined with injuries to the one-two punch of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, was spun in circles by Seattle last Sunday. Colts QB Jacoby Brissett progressed from lousy to OK on the same day. Houston is explosive, but only top-tier teams should be spotting nearly two touchdowns. Indy has not lost ATS in south Texas since five games ago. And you have to wonder the home side’s state of mind in the wake of its rift with owner Bob McNair.

It's hard backing a bad Indy team, but this is just too many points and the line should come down. Remember that the Texans were only favored by 7.5 at home against the Browns a few weeks ago, largely due to the Watt and Mercilus injuries. Those guys haven't gotten healthy, and the line remains a huge concern after the trade of Duane Brown. The Colts have shown with Jacoby Brissett that they can score points if not up against an elite defense, which Houston isn't. I'd look to play Indy getting double digits if possible.

All Deshaun Watson does is throw touchdowns and all Will Fuller does is catch them. The Colts' secondary faces a bad matchup this week and this is what the game of football is all about: matchups. Look for the Texans defense to force a lot of early three-and-outs against a sputtering Colts offensive attack. Lay the points with Houston.