All of this talk about a Super Bowl hangover is giving me a headache. The Falcons’ loss was devastating, but all signs are that the collapse is in their rear-view mirror. They were the league’s top scoring team at 33.8 points, and the Bears ranked 24th at 24.9, with the number trending up at the back end of the schedule. A rookie (Eddie Jackson) starts at safety. Chicago QB Mike Glennon is 5-14 as a starter and could be in for a long day against a defense that improved by leaps and bounds last year.

This is a high total for me with the Falcons outdoors against a solid defense and the Bears unlikely to move the ball consistently throughout the air. You could see the Falcons scoring 30 and the Bears' offense still keeping this under 49, and you could also see the Bears winning a lower-scoring game. You probably can't see this being a shootout; I know I can't.

I'm a bit worried about the Bears with Kyle Long unlikely to play and Prince Amukamara's status up in the air as well. But I think they'll be able to move the ball on the ground against the Falcons, and I think playing outdoors at Soldier Field will slow the Falcons offense down. I also like the trend of Super Bowl losers struggling out of the gate, and the Falcons are dealing with plenty of turnover on the staff after losing their offensive and defensive coordinators. They're not going to be at their best in Week 1, allowing the Bears to cover.

This line could dip below a touchdown by kickoff, so I'm jumping on now. Super Bowl losers have a terrible track record in season openers the following year (2-15 ATS last 17 years). While I don't think Atlanta will collapse this season, laying a full TD on the road is a stretch. Mike Glennon looked competent in the third preseason game. Chicago will emphasize Jordan Howard, shortening the game. Grab the points.

Many are expecting the Falcons to suffer a Super Bowl hangover, but at least for Week 1, they're a solid bet. Atlanta is covering 56 percent of my simulations and I'm projecting a double-digit win. The Bears just lost their No. 1 receiver, leaving their already weak offense in even worse shape. Lay it.