I like backing Super Bowl winners in Week 1, and like it even more when the team in question is unquestionably the best in the NFL. Tom Brady takes advantage of matchups by targeting Chiefs cornerbacks not named Marcus Peters, while Gronk dominates the middle of the field. The Chiefs aren't built to play catch up if the Pats get out to a hot start, and with so much time to prepare for this game, I expect just that from Bill Belichick. Pats roll by double digits.

Week 1 is the first time starters play a full game. That typically yields close matchups. The Chiefs have a good defense that matches up very well with the Pats. And they'll do enough on offense to control the clock. Back Kansas City with the points.

The Patriots deserve to be favored by a touchdown, but anything more than that is significant because so many games (nearly 10 percent) end on 7. In fact, the last time these teams met, in a January 2016 playoff game, New England won 27-20 at home. Andy Reid, starting his fifth year in K.C., has never been this big of an underdog with the Chiefs. He still has a top-10 defense, terrific special teams and enough playmakers in Travis Kelce. Tyreek Hill and rookie RB Kareem Hunt to keep this close. There is no pressure on the Chiefs because everyone expects them to get blown out. Instead, look for K.C. to cover its seventh straight road game.

I'm torn because I think the conservative Chiefs' offense can hang with the Patriots and do something to keep Tom Brady off the field; Alex Smith is a great game manager and doesn't make the big mistake. However, I also have way too much respect for the Patriots covering inflated lines last season. I'm going to wait and watch them fail to cover until betting they won't. However, I do see value with the Under even though it's dropped from the opener. My top play in this game is the Under.