CITRUS BOWL -- We're getting a reduced price on what should be a pretty strong position on the Nittany Lions. It's the final career game for record-setting QB Trace McSorley and James Franklin-coached clubs are historically well prepared in bowl games. The Wildcats had a breakout season and their sterling defense could keep them in this, but the firepower deficit should be the difference.

CITRUS BOWL -- Kentucky deserves a lot of credit for the season it put together, but if we're being honest, it hasn't beaten a quality opponent since Oct. 27 and dropped its last two games to ranked teams. Early wins over Florida and Mississippi State boosted this team's resume, but it's getting a bit too much credit here. Penn State has struggled against the best teams it has faced, but it's also taken care off many middle-of-the-road programs, such as Wisconsin (22-10) and Iowa (30-24). We will see a great defensive effort from the Wildcats on Tuesday, but the Nittany Lions will have enough to pull out a cover now that this line as dropped.

CITRUS BOWL -- Kentucky has been a great story all season long. The Wildcats do a great job of owning the time of possession with their running game. However, against a team like Penn State, whichis led by the spectacular QB Trace McSorely, they will have to find ways to generate points often; preferably touchdowns. The Nittany Lions do a great job of pushing the pace and tempo, and they'll turn this one into a track meet pretty quickly.

CITRUS BOWL -- Trace McSorley tailed off in his senior season, but the Penn State QB figures to go out in style -- even against this stalwart defense. McSorley won’t mind that Kentucky LB Jordan Jones has been shelved with an injury. He need not deliver a ton of points given that the Nittany Lions doled out just 20 in their last three games. Kentucky’s offense lacks the dynamism to score regularly. Penn State coach James Franklin has covered in four consecutive bowls.

CITRUS BOWL -- Kentucky exceeded expectations overall, but a closer look at the second half of its schedule shows that the Wildcats weren't that impressive down the stretch. They lost three of their last five in SEC play, including a 17-point setback to 5-7 Tennessee. Penn State, meanwhile, won five of six to close the season and quarterback Trace McSorley should be able to move the ball against a tough Kentucky defense. My simulations strongly point to the Nittany Lions in this matchup.