Stephon Castle has gone over 4.5 boards in seven of the last 10 games, with one of the misses due to an early injury. In those seven instances, Castle had at least seven boards, with three of the totals hitting by halftime. Castle had five rebounds in the November matchup with Chicago, and that was when the Bulls allowed less than the league average to shooting guards. Over the past seven games, the Bulls have allowed shooting guards to hit this prop in over 50% of the games, compared to a 39% season rate. The guards who have gone over the total are those who are in the top-30 in rebounds by guards, which is where Castle is, averaging 5.1 RPG.

The Spurs have a great matchup against the Bulls, who play at the third-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. Along the way, they have given up the third-most assists per game. Stephon Castle already comes into this matchup playing well, averaging 18.7 points and 8.4 assists over his last nine games. Another stat I like is that he is shooting 50.2% from the field at home, versus 44.6% on the road. It’s going to be difficult for the Bulls to slow him down.

Tre Jones continues to start for the Bulls down the stretch. Over the last 14 games, he has averaged 16.8 points and 5.1 assists. With regards to this prop, he combined for at least 19 points and assists in 11 of those games. That includes reaching that threshold in difficult matchups against the Thunder, Rockets, Clippers and Suns. When these teams played each other in November, Jones finished with 20 points and seven assists. This line has been set too low, so give me the over.