Isaiah Hartenstein is coming off a 12-rebound performance in Game 4 at Memphis. He has grabbed 50 rebounds in his last five games. In this matchup against Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon, Hartenstein will be critical to negating the Nuggets' rebounding edge. So I'm expecting him to play more minutes than usual and clear this prop total.

Certain players raise their game in the postseason versus the regular season. Aaron Gordon since his put back dunk to win game four over the Clippers, has surged in the points department. He scored 23, 19, and 22 to close out the series against the Clippers. Look for his confidence to continue in game one against the Thunder, as he goes over his points prop for a fourth straight postseason game.

Russell Westbrook is one of the few players that the Nuggets can count on off the bench right now. Excluding the game that he went down with an injury, Westbrook logged at least 23 minutes in all five of his other games against the Clippers. He scored at least 14 points in all five of those games. The Thunder ranked first in defensive rating during the regular season, but Westbrook just had a lot of success against a Clippers team that finished third in defensive rating. With a leading bench role coming his way again, I think Westbrook stays hot in Game 1 against the Thunder.

A rare case of rust to consider in the NBA playoffs as OKC has had nine days since it closed out Memphis in an opening-round sweep. Even with starters playing barely half of Games 1 and 2, however, the Thunder still scored at 120 pg in that series, and in the last three reg-season clashes vs. Denver, OKC scored at a 125 pg clip. Note the Nuggets did get a combined 69 points from Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in the last meeting that ended 140-127 Denver on March 10, though the Thunder rolled 127-103 the night before in a back-to-back scenario. NBA playoffs are also now trending over (14-5 the last nineteen) after an early spate of under results. Play Nuggets-Thunder Over

The Nuggets, pushed to the brink in the first round by the Clippers but also able to benefit from a Game Seven meltdown by James Harden and various non-Kawhi Clips, have some different concerns in this matchup. Especially the bench, where Denver offers Russell Westbrook but little else. Meanwhile, Mark Daigneault's OKC bench is arguably the deepest in the league, scoring better than 35 ppg. The well-rested, 68-win Thunder should be on their toes, too, after splitting four vs. Denver, and losing the last meeting 140-127 on March 10. But OKC has size in Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren to throw at the Joker, and Lu Dort's tenacious defense should make it more difficult for Jamal Murray than in the first round. Play Thunder

Nuggets have serious defensive flaws and have tired legs after going 7 games. DEN was 24th in road defensive rating after ASG, 24th in NBA, which got their coach fired. They were 28th in TOV% in those games and OKC backcourt pressure and quick hands will derail them. DEN allowed 119/G after ASG overall, were 24th defending the 3 ball (gulp in this series) and 28th in opponent assist (SGA will slice and dice). Rested OKC averaged 120/G in last round despite calling off dogs in massive blowouts and averaged 123/G at home in regular season and scored 124+ in 3 of 4 vs Denver this season. This ain't the old and tired Clippers.