FanDuel. Kevin Porter Jr. is peaking at the right time for the Bucks. He finished the regular season clearing this in each of the last five games, and has clearly earned the trust of Doc Rivers, without Damian Lillard available. KPJ has eclipsed this total in nine of thirteen games when he plays at least 18 minutes, with Giannis Antetokounmpo active. As the only true point guard in the rotation, I do see Porter Jr. seeing more minutes to help the Milwaukee bigs exploit the Pacers in the pick and roll - Indiana is 27th at defending roll-men.

Bobby Portis recorded at least 22 combined points and rebounds in all three games since returning from his suspension. In two of those games, he had at least 27 combined. Damian Lillard isn’t ready to return yet, so the Bucks need someone to help taking the scoring pressure off Giannis Antetokounmpo. That should continue to leave added minutes for Portis, who combined for at least 24 points and rebounds in two regular season meetings with the Pacers. When these two teams met in the playoffs last season, Portis averaged 16.5 points and 11.3 rebounds. I expect him to thrive in this game.

With Dame Lillard out, Giannis not only upped his assists to a ridiculous rate recently but he also increased his scoring and has averaged nearly 44 in April. He went 5-4 over this with a 43.1 vs Indiana over the last couple of seasons. The man has triple doubles in 3 of his last 4 games and out of 100 possessions, he will likely be shooting, passing for an assist opportunity, or going to the free throw line 45+ times. Our projection of 36 points and 7.6 assists is probably closer to his floor because while his recent assist production is weighted more in the model, it’s not weighted that much more to reflect his 12+ average the last 6 games.

I get that it's the playoffs and all, where defense is supposed to rule, but these teams played wild games in final two months knowing they have to score huge to win consistently. The Bucks finished 9-2 to the over with games averaging 240 points, going 236+ in 8 of those contests. The Pacers finished 8-3 over, with 7 games of 239+ and an average total of 238. Regular season games between these teams since '22 have averaged 253(!!) points. Playoff series last year had three games in the 230s and 3 under 220. Given recent form, I expect it to start loosey-goosey this spring.