Cleveland has won the past four meetings against the Grizzlies who have won their last four games and appear to be better than during their flat stretch but they only covered one of those games. In fact, they've only covered one of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, Cleveland keeps rolling along at 55-10, the best record in the NBA, along with 41 covers and 41 overs. They're just as good on the road at 25-6 as they are at home at 30-4. Cleveland covers.

The Cavaliers will play this game without Donovan Mitchell (groin). Evan Mobley has scored at least 21 points in four of the previous five games that Mitchell has missed. The one time that he didn’t, he just missed the threshold with 20 points. The Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace in the league, which helped Mobley score 25 points against them earlier this season. With added shots likely coming his way because of Mitchell’s absence, Mobley has a favorable opportunity to hit this over.

Donovan Mitchell (groin) has been ruled out for this matchup. The last game that Ty Jerome played without Mitchell, he scored 25 points against the Trail Blazers. Mitchell played the last time these two teams met, but Darius Garland did not. That resulted in Jerome scoring 26 points off the bench. The Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace in the league, so the combination of that and additional shots being available with Mitchell out leaves Jerome with significant scoring upside.

Ja Morant has had 28+ points in four consecutive games, however he has faced four of the best possible matchups. Morant doesn't look right to me and his outside shot has not been reliable. He's really struggled from an efficiency standpoint having shot just 50% or better once in his previous twelve appearances. Now he faces a Cleveland that ranks 6th in Defensive Efficiency and have two exceptional rim protectors in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Jaren Jackson could also potentially return to the lineup as well. I expect Ja to continue to struggle from the field.

I expect the Cavs to cover this game. Donovan Mitchell is expected back and they have been up for every challenge this season. They have won 10 straight on the road and covered 7 of them. They are 14-5-1 ATS vs the West and an elite road team, while Memphis has not been nearly as good on both ends of the court the last 6 weeks as they were earlier in the season. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 and failed to cover 8 straight at home. They have failed to cover 7 straight vs top 10 teams, failing to cover by 10, 3, 11.5, 3, 3, 7 and 10 points. Cavs are too deep for them.