All the hype is about Luka Doncic's first game against the Mavericks since the dumbest trade in NBA history, but I have been following the NBA a long time and more times than not things don't go according to script. Hollywood would love Luka to torch his old team in a blowout, but in reality I think the Mavericks keep it close.

All eyes on Luke Doncic as he faces his old Dallas team for the first time since the blockbuster trade from a few weeks ago. The problem on the Mavs side is that right now it doesn't much look like the real Dallas, with a spate of injuries almost wiping out the frontline, including Anthony Davis, sent to Big D in the Doncic deal. The Mavs looked out of gas on Sunday in a heavy loss at Golden State. As for Luka, he's off of his best game as a Laker when scoring 32 on Saturday at Denver, but also note the Lake Show defense has allowed a tick under 100 pg in the three games since the All-Star break. Play Mavs-Lakers Under

P.J. Washington (ankle) is listed as questionable for this game. He was also listed as questionable both of the last two games, but played both times. He scored 24 points over 37 minutes against the Pelicans, then scored 17 points in just 28 minutes in a blowout loss to the Warriors. Washington has scored at least 17 points in eight of his last nine games, so the over is the way to go here.

If anyone knows the Mavs offense, it's this guy. Luka is not a good one on one defender, but he is a smart player and he knows the Mavericks’ offense so what he lacks in true on the ball defense he can make up for with picking someone’s pocket. He is also coming off a 4 steal game against Denver. Doncic averages nearly 2 steals per game so to get this price on a line well under his average seems like a golden opportunity.

I'll go ahead and get on this nice and early. Luka coming back to Dallas, and he finally looked like himself the other night in Denver, absolutely taking it to the Nuggets. LBJ has been huge in every big game the Lakers have played the last few months and Mavs streak of 7 straight covers ended with a thud vs Warriors. Mavs being without their bigs should show up big here. Crowd will likely be with Luka.