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    Fri, Jun 0212:30 am UTCBall Arena
    Track OnCBS Sports
    Miami
    Heat
    MIA
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L58-49
    ATS46-58
    O/U51-54-2
    FINAL SCORE
    93
    -
    104
    Denver
    Nuggets
    DEN
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L69-33
    ATS56-45
    O/U47-55-0
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER
    Last 5 ATS
    58-49
    Win /Loss
    69-33
    46-58
    Spread
    56-45
    51-54-2
    Over / Under
    47-55-0
    Key Injuries
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    SG
    Avatar
    SG
    Avatar
    SG
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    SG
    Avatar
    PF
    Avatar
    C
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER

    Simulation Picks

    SPREAD
    MIA @ DEN
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    MONEYLINE
    MIA @ DEN
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    OVER / UNDER
    MIA @ DEN
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    Over0%
    PUBLIC
    Under0%
    Over
    MONEY
    Under

    Understanding

    Public and Money

    Read More

    Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

    Expert Picks

    Point SpreadMiami +9 -115
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +690
    8-1 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
    +830
    16-7-2 in Last 25 DEN ATS Picks
    Tim's Analysis:

    Game 1s have been good for Miami Heat bettors this postseason. They were big underdogs in all three so far, and won all three outright. This is just way too many points. Take the underdog.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 10:59 pm UTC
    1st Quarter Spread1st Quarter Denver -3.5 -115
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    Allan's Analysis:

    The Denver Nuggets are lethal at home, fully rested and facing an energy depleted Miami team traveling across the country and at altitude. Good enough for me. Look for Nikola Jokic to get the party started early for Denver and couple that with a Miami team known for slower starts this could be a nice grab-and-go for us tonight. First quarter bets leave such little margin for error so definitely understand anyone who looks first half or just stays full game, love Denver in all aspects, but yeah if you're looking for opportunities to cash multiple ways tonight take a look here.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 10:43 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total 3pt FieldGoalsNikola Jokic Over 1.5 Total 3pt FieldGoals +129
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +464
    4-1 in Last 5 NBA Player Props Picks
    Allan's Analysis:

    Welcome to the NBA Finals and the most fun bet in the sport! Nikola Jokic eclipsed this number in 3 of 4 in the Lakers series, 3 of 6 in the Suns series and 3 of 5 in the Timberwolves series. It's incredibly profitable. Couple that with the Heat's zone look approach defensively and it could force Jokic out behind the bow a few more looks than normal. This wager is always set at 1.5 and always at plus money...and historically speaking in the postseason you end up ahead in the end. Best of luck!

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 10:31 pm UTC
    Point SpreadDenver -9 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +465
    7-2-1 in Last 10 NBA Picks
    +300
    3-0 in Last 3 MIA ATS Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    I'm backing the Nuggets in game 1 at 8.5 and -9 across several different books and price points. This is a tough spot for Miami after the 7-game series with the Celtics and now have to deal with Nikola Jokic at altitude. NBA teams don't often see matchups like this where opposing teams can run offensive sets through their center. Miami was effective against Boston because they were able to switch nearly every screen, and because Boston continued to miss threes at a significant rate. The thing that stands out here for the Nuggets is the overall size against the Miami lineups. Michael Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon both have the ability to get shots up over these smaller defenders. I'm on the Nuggets.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 8:50 pm UTC
    Point SpreadMiami +9 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +92
    2-1 in Last 3 NBA Picks
    +178
    4-2 in Last 6 MIA ATS Picks
    Zack's Analysis:

    Game one Miami likely will not be in range to win against the Denver Nuggets. What I do expect to happen is for the Denver Nuggets to have the same lapses we saw for most of their series against the LA Lakers. Miami should have an opportunity to threaten the number and cover with a backdoor opportunity. Grab the Heat on a huge game one spread for the NBA Finals.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 8:36 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total Points + Assists + ReboundsAaron Gordon Over 21.5 Total Points + Assists + Rebounds -111
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +601
    13-6 in Last 19 NBA Player Props Picks
    Eric's Analysis:

    It's going to be an uphill battle for the Heat to win this series, especially with how well Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have been playing. But arguably the third best player on Denver's roster is Aaron Gordon, who will likely be tasked defensively with slowing Jimmy Butler. A key to Gordon hitting this line is when he takes double-digit shot attempts. He was over this 21.5 prop in 35 of 40 regular season games in which he took 10+ shots. The same angle is 5 for 7 in the playoffs. Expect Gordon to post a line comparable to his regular season averages: 16-7-3 and comfortably hit our over.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 7:37 pm UTC
    Over / UnderUnder 219 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +400
    4-0 in Last 4 NBA O/U Picks
    +650
    6-0 in Last 6 MIA O/U Picks
    Kenny's Analysis:

    Rest vs. rust is always the question when one team has been off for a longer period of time than its opponent. Denver has been off for nine days, and Miami just two. The Heat are going to try and slow the pace the best that they can. During the regular season, Denver ranked 24th in pace, and Miami was 29th. I think the rust could lead to a slow start for Denver's offense. My model is expecting just 92 possessions and a final total of 210.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 6:16 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total PointsJamal Murray Over 25.5 Total Points -127
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +77
    9-7 in Last 16 NBA Player Props Picks
    Jason's Analysis:

    Jamal Murray averaged 32.5 points in the Lakers series where the line averaged at 25.5 points through four games. The books aren’t making any adjustment based on the Lakers series and our SportslineAI model doesn’t think his performance was just a few good games predicting 28.2 points.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 6:05 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total PointsJimmy Butler Under 27.5 Total Points -137
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +273
    20-14 in Last 34 NBA Player Props Picks
    Tom's Analysis:

    If they keep putting Jimmy Butler's point total this high I'm going to keep betting the under. Since the second round, Butler has scored 28 points in only four of 12 games. He's shooting 42.4% from the field in that time, and has been reliant on getting to the free throw line to score. He doesn't get to the line nearly as often on the road as at home.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 5:56 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total Points + AssistsNikola Jokic Over 38.5 Total Points + Assists -111
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +273
    20-14 in Last 34 NBA Player Props Picks
    Tom's Analysis:

    While individual matchups aren't very predictive when it comes to NBA props, Nikola Jokic has performed well against Miami and in his matchup against Bam Adebayo. Historically, Denver has used Jokic on offense to drag Adebayo out from beneath the basket and open up the lane for everybody else. This has had a negative impact on Jokic's rebounding, but his scoring and assist rates have been very high against the Heat. I'm betting on that to continue.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 5:54 pm UTC
    Point SpreadDenver -9 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +195
    3-1 in Last 4 NBA ATS Picks
    +295
    4-1 in Last 5 DEN ATS Picks
    Tom's Analysis:

    Denver has been dominant at home all season long, including the playoffs where it's 8-0. There's plenty of debate between "rested or rusted," but I'd rather be rested and a little rusty than worn the hell down, and Miami is worn the hell down. It just finished a seven-game war against Boston while Denver was chilling at home.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 5:52 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total PointsJimmy Butler Under 27.5 Total Points -117
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1368.5
    70-45 in Last 115 NBA Player Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    It is never pleasant fading Jimmy Butler who is capable of erupting for 40+ points on any given night, especially during the postseason, however I do think this line is inflated. Aaron Gordon is going will be tasked with defending Butler. Gordon is the Nuggets best defender and he guarded Lebron James in the WCF and Kevin Durant in the Semis, talk about a tough assignment. He played outstanding defense in both series and he possesses the size, length, lateral quickness, and strength to make life difficult for Butler. Also worth noting that Jimmy is averaged less than 25 PPG vs Boston and New York. Butler has been logging heavy minutes, is banged up, and I don't expect him to eclipse 40+ minutes tonight.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 5:02 pm UTC
    Over / UnderOver 218.5 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1249
    16-3 in Last 19 NBA Picks
    +80
    3-2 in Last 5 NBA O/U Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    One of the reasons why there weren’t a lot of points scored in the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals was that the Celtics went cold from behind the arc. In those two games, they shot a combined 16-for-77 from deep. The Nuggets have been locked in offensively during their playoff run, averaging 116.4 points per game. They scored 125 points in Game 1 of their series against the Suns, then followed it up with 132 points in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Lakers. Look for the Nuggets to lead the way for the over to hit.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 2:48 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total AssistsJimmy Butler Over 5.5 Total Assists -151
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Player Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    Jimmy Butler has been in the headlines during the playoffs because of his scoring prowess, but he generally provides a lot of production across the board. In terms of assists, he has at least six of them in seven of the last 10 games. Two of the three times that he failed to reach that threshold, he had five assists each. In the two games that he played against the Nuggets during the regular season, Butler had eight and nine assists, respectively. The Heat might be forced to play at a faster pace with the Nuggets lighting up the scoreboard at home, so that could lead to additional opportunities for assists for Butler.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 2:25 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total AssistsNikola Jokic Over 9.5 Total Assists -137
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Player Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    This feels like a low number. Nikola Jokic has dished out at least 11 assists in seven of the last eight games as he continues to push the pace for the Nuggets. During the regular season, he averaged 11.1 assists per game at home. What helped his cause is that the team shot 50.8 percent from the field at home. With his full complement of shooters around him and the home crowd behind them, look for Jokic to dish out plenty of dimes again.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 2:16 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total Points + Assists + ReboundsBruce Brown Under 17.5 Total Points + Assists + Rebounds -123
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1368.5
    70-45 in Last 115 NBA Player Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    Bruce Brown is an amazing role player capable of contributing in a variety of ways and is key cog in Denver's rotation. That being said, I think this is a great spot to fade him. After sweeping the Lakers and having 10 days off, Denver's starters are rested and as a result a think its unlikely that Brown logs heavy minutes in game 1. The fifth-year veteran takes the vast majority of his shots inside the paint, meanwhile the Heat surrendered the second fewest points in paint this season (46 PPG), in addition to the second fewest second chance points (12 PPG) with Bam Adebayo anchoring their interior defense.

    Pick Made: Jun 01, 5:21 am UTC
    Point SpreadMiami +9 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1029.25
    74-46 in Last 120 NBA Picks
    +224
    6-3 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
    +235
    9-6 in Last 15 DEN ATS Picks
    Matt's Analysis:

    I'm not giving 9 points to a team in the NBA Finals. Yes, I would be shocked if Denver lost but it certainly could be rusty with nine days off. Miami beat a lot better quality of teams to get here than Nikola Jokic & Co. did -- the Nuggets are the 4th team to reach the Finals and never face a team with a win percentage of .550 or above in that postseason, joining the 1956 Warriors, 1957 Celtics and 1959 Celtics. Denver won both regular-season matchups vs. Miami but didn't come close to covering this number in either.

    Pick Made: May 31, 9:13 pm UTC
    Point SpreadMiami +9 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    Micah's Analysis:

    The Nuggets have been waiting for over a week so do we have rest or rust as the focal point? We've seen the Nuggets win and cover their last six meetings with Miami, but none of the spreads were this high. This Heat squad is different considering they beat higher seeds in away games in the first games of all three series they faced. The Heat is fresh off the Game 7 win at Boston, they've got the momentum, and they’re acclimated to the altitude before gameday. It's too many points for Denver to give. Heat to cover.

    Pick Made: May 31, 7:41 pm UTC
    Point SpreadDenver -8.5 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +318
    12-8 in Last 20 NBA ATS Picks
    +1925
    61-38-3 in Last 102 DEN ATS Picks
    Larry's Analysis:

    The Nuggets have thrived in series openers, beating the Timberwolves by 29, the Suns by 18 and the Lakers by six (after building a 21-point second-half lead). Maybe it's the time it takes to adjust to the altitude. Regardless, the Nuggets have dominated at home, going 30-18-1 ATS this season. They own the second-best ATS margin at home (+3.7 points). Miami just finished a grueling seven-game series. The Heat don't have anyone who can slow Nikola Jokic -- it has not gone well for Bam Adebayo -- while the Nuggets can put Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Aaron Gordon on Jimmy Butler. When playing at Ball Arena, Denver ranks fifth in defensive efficiency.

    Pick Made: May 30, 3:51 am UTC

    Team Injuries

    Miami Heat
    Thursday, Apr 11, 2024
    Avatar
    SG
    Terry Rozier
    NeckQuestionable
    Avatar
    SG
    Duncan Robinson
    BackOut
    Tuesday, Mar 05, 2024
    Avatar
    SG
    Josh Richardson
    ShoulderOut
    Denver Nuggets
    Friday, Apr 12, 2024
    Avatar
    SG
    Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
    ShoulderQuestionable
    Thursday, Apr 11, 2024
    Avatar
    PF
    Aaron Gordon
    FootQuestionable
    Avatar
    C
    Nikola Jokic
    HipQuestionable
    Avatar
    PG
    Jamal Murray
    KneeQuestionable
    Avatar
    SF
    Michael Porter Jr.
    QuadricepsQuestionable
    Avatar
    PF
    Zeke Nnaji
    ThighQuestionable
    Friday, Apr 05, 2024
    Avatar
    SF
    Vlatko Cancar
    KneeOut