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    Tue, May 3012:30 am UTCTD Garden
    Track OnCBS Sports
    Miami
    Heat
    MIA
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L58-49
    ATS46-58
    O/U51-54-2
    FINAL SCORE
    103
    -
    84
    Boston
    Celtics
    BOS
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L68-34
    ATS55-46
    O/U52-48-2
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER
    Last 5 ATS
    58-49
    Win /Loss
    68-34
    46-58
    Spread
    55-46
    51-54-2
    Over / Under
    52-48-2
    Key Injuries
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    SF
    Avatar
    SG
    Avatar
    SF
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    C
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER

    Simulation Picks

    SPREAD
    MIA @ BOS
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    MONEYLINE
    MIA @ BOS
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    OVER / UNDER
    MIA @ BOS
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    Over0%
    PUBLIC
    Under0%
    Over
    MONEY
    Under

    Understanding Public and Money

    Read More

    Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

    Expert Picks

    Point SpreadMiami +7.5 -120
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +690
    8-1 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
    +225
    9-6-1 in Last 16 MIA ATS Picks
    Tim's Analysis:

    Everyone knows the Celtics are winning this game. But then why take Miami and the points? The wheels officially are off for the Heat, but now they can play loose, and they already have won two games in Boston.

    Pick Made: May 29, 10:57 pm UTC on Caesars
    Point SpreadMiami +7.5 -115
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +790
    9-1 in Last 10 NBA ATS Picks
    +300
    3-0 in Last 3 BOS ATS Picks
    Jason's Analysis:

    Our SportslineAI likes the Boston Celtics to do what has never been done before and win game 7 after being down 3-0, more specifically, win by 4.5 points. 151 teams have been down 3-0, Boston is only the fourth team in history to even force a game 7. None of the previous 3 won and with this line they need to win by 8. I will take the Heat and the points.

    Pick Made: May 29, 7:00 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total Points + Assists + ReboundsJaylen Brown Under 34.5 Total Points + Assists + Rebounds -121
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Player Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    Jaylen Brown had 39 combined points, rebounds and assists in Game 6. His 10 rebounds in that game were the most that he has had in the series, and he made eight of 10 attempts from the free-throw line. He only had nine total free-throw attempts over the first five games. In the series, he is shooting 43.2 percent from the field and 17.6 percent from behind the arc, which has left him to hit the under on this number four times. In what could be a low-scoring Game 7, I’m riding with the under.

    Pick Made: May 29, 6:18 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total PointsCaleb Martin Over 14.5 Total Points -151
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Player Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    When this was first released, Caleb Martin’s points prop was set at 15.5. It was a significant jump over Game 6, and it has since come back a point. With that movement, I like the over. He moved into the starting lineup in Game 6, scoring 21 points across 41 minutes. He has scored at least 15 points in five of the six games against the Celtics and has shot 58.3 percent from the field in the series. I like him to hit the over again as the Celtics continue to focus on trying to slow down Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

    Pick Made: May 29, 6:08 pm UTC on Caesars
    Over / UnderUNDER 203.5 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +400
    4-0 in Last 4 NBA O/U Picks
    +650
    6-0 in Last 6 MIA O/U Picks
    Kenny's Analysis:

    I'm betting Under 203.5 owing to the pressure of Game 7, fewer fouls called by the officials not wanting to decide the outcome, and the fact that the last two games have seen the pace slow to a crawl. Both teams are tired from a long series. There will be no surprises by either offense, so the advantage goes to the defense. In Game 5 there were just 84 possessions and Game 6 had 89 possessions. My model pegs this total at 197.

    Pick Made: May 29, 5:44 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total Rebounds + AssistsMax Strus Under 4.5 Total Rebounds + Assists -139
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +273
    20-14 in Last 34 NBA Player Props Picks
    Tom's Analysis:

    Max Strus just stopped getting rebounds and assists on the road. In Game 1 of the Knicks series, Strus finished with five rebounds and assists. He hasn't had more than three in a road game since. In three games in Boston in the series, he's had five total. If he's only had five combined in three road games, it doesn't make much sense to bet on him getting five tonight.

    Pick Made: May 29, 5:09 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total PointsMarcus Smart Over 13.5 Total Points -129
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +273
    20-14 in Last 34 NBA Player Props Picks
    Tom's Analysis:

    In the first three games of the series Marcus Smart averaged 7.3 assists to 6.7 shot attempts. Boston lost all three games. The adjustment? In three games since, Smart has averaged 12.7 shots to only 3.0 assists. He's no longer facilitating the offense. He's providing an extra three-point shooter to open up the lane for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. He's getting a bunch of wide-open looks from three.

    Pick Made: May 29, 5:06 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total PointsJimmy Butler Under 28.5 Total Points -119
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +273
    20-14 in Last 34 NBA Player Props Picks
    Tom's Analysis:

    Jimmy Butler is averaging only 24.2 points per game in the series, and has gone over this total in only two of the first six games. He has scored 30.3% of his points at the free throw line, but in three games at Boston he's averaging 6.3 free throw attempts per game compared to 11.0 at home. Even after getting to the line 14 times in Game 6 he finished with only 24 points because his shot isn't fallint (36.9% over the last four games). Officials tend to "let them play" a bit more in Game 7, and given how things have already gone on the road, it's hard to imagine Jimmy gets to the line much tonight.

    Pick Made: May 29, 5:04 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total Points + Assists + ReboundsJayson Tatum Under 48.5 Total Points + Assists + Rebounds -117
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1368.5
    70-45 in Last 115 NBA Player Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    Jayson Tatum is averaging 43.1 PRA in this series which is nearly identical to the 43.6 PRA he is averaging in the postseason. Tatum has been very good in the playoffs but this line is inflated no matter how you cut it, particularly in a game 7 environment where the game will be paced down and very tight. Speaking of which, Tatum has been held under this combo line in 14/17 career elimination games and 5/6 game 7's. He is also due for some regression with his peripheral metrics where he's largely been running above expectations. I expected this number somewhere between 43.5 and 45.5.

    Pick Made: May 29, 2:39 pm UTC on Caesars
    Over / UnderOVER 203.5 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +410
    25-19 in Last 44 NBA Picks
    +380
    6-2 in Last 8 MIA O/U Picks
    Stephen's Analysis:

    Scores tend to decrease as a series progresses, and we've seen it in Boston-Miami after Game 3 produced 230 points. Teams know exactly what their opponents are running; fatigue and injuries also are factors. But 203.5 is too low according to my projections for Game 7. In my simulations, the Over is cashing 77 percent of the time.

    Pick Made: May 28, 4:45 am UTC on Caesars

    Team Injuries

    Miami Heat
    Monday, Jul 22, 2024
    Avatar
    SF
    Keshad Johnson
    AnkleProbable
    Thursday, May 02, 2024
    Avatar
    SF
    Jimmy Butler
    KneeProbable
    Avatar
    SG
    Josh Richardson
    ShoulderProbable
    Boston Celtics
    Thursday, Jun 27, 2024
    Avatar
    C
    Kristaps Porzingis
    FootOut