Everyone knows the Celtics are winning this game. But then why take Miami and the points? The wheels officially are off for the Heat, but now they can play loose, and they already have won two games in Boston.

Our SportslineAI likes the Boston Celtics to do what has never been done before and win game 7 after being down 3-0, more specifically, win by 4.5 points. 151 teams have been down 3-0, Boston is only the fourth team in history to even force a game 7. None of the previous 3 won and with this line they need to win by 8. I will take the Heat and the points.

Jaylen Brown had 39 combined points, rebounds and assists in Game 6. His 10 rebounds in that game were the most that he has had in the series, and he made eight of 10 attempts from the free-throw line. He only had nine total free-throw attempts over the first five games. In the series, he is shooting 43.2 percent from the field and 17.6 percent from behind the arc, which has left him to hit the under on this number four times. In what could be a low-scoring Game 7, I’m riding with the under.

When this was first released, Caleb Martin’s points prop was set at 15.5. It was a significant jump over Game 6, and it has since come back a point. With that movement, I like the over. He moved into the starting lineup in Game 6, scoring 21 points across 41 minutes. He has scored at least 15 points in five of the six games against the Celtics and has shot 58.3 percent from the field in the series. I like him to hit the over again as the Celtics continue to focus on trying to slow down Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

I'm betting Under 203.5 owing to the pressure of Game 7, fewer fouls called by the officials not wanting to decide the outcome, and the fact that the last two games have seen the pace slow to a crawl. Both teams are tired from a long series. There will be no surprises by either offense, so the advantage goes to the defense. In Game 5 there were just 84 possessions and Game 6 had 89 possessions. My model pegs this total at 197.

Max Strus just stopped getting rebounds and assists on the road. In Game 1 of the Knicks series, Strus finished with five rebounds and assists. He hasn't had more than three in a road game since. In three games in Boston in the series, he's had five total. If he's only had five combined in three road games, it doesn't make much sense to bet on him getting five tonight.

In the first three games of the series Marcus Smart averaged 7.3 assists to 6.7 shot attempts. Boston lost all three games. The adjustment? In three games since, Smart has averaged 12.7 shots to only 3.0 assists. He's no longer facilitating the offense. He's providing an extra three-point shooter to open up the lane for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. He's getting a bunch of wide-open looks from three.

Jimmy Butler is averaging only 24.2 points per game in the series, and has gone over this total in only two of the first six games. He has scored 30.3% of his points at the free throw line, but in three games at Boston he's averaging 6.3 free throw attempts per game compared to 11.0 at home. Even after getting to the line 14 times in Game 6 he finished with only 24 points because his shot isn't fallint (36.9% over the last four games). Officials tend to "let them play" a bit more in Game 7, and given how things have already gone on the road, it's hard to imagine Jimmy gets to the line much tonight.

Jayson Tatum is averaging 43.1 PRA in this series which is nearly identical to the 43.6 PRA he is averaging in the postseason. Tatum has been very good in the playoffs but this line is inflated no matter how you cut it, particularly in a game 7 environment where the game will be paced down and very tight. Speaking of which, Tatum has been held under this combo line in 14/17 career elimination games and 5/6 game 7's. He is also due for some regression with his peripheral metrics where he's largely been running above expectations. I expected this number somewhere between 43.5 and 45.5.

Scores tend to decrease as a series progresses, and we've seen it in Boston-Miami after Game 3 produced 230 points. Teams know exactly what their opponents are running; fatigue and injuries also are factors. But 203.5 is too low according to my projections for Game 7. In my simulations, the Over is cashing 77 percent of the time.