I'll bet on Tobias Harris having a bounce back performance after his dud in game 6. Harris has appeared in quite a few elimination games since joining the 76ers and has performed well. With the rotations tightening in a do or die game, I think Harris plays upwards of 40 minutes today as well.

The 76ers have more victories in Boston (two) than on their home floor (one) in this series, so there’s no doubt they can win this game. Joel Embiid didn’t touch the ball over the last four minutes of their Game 6 loss. That needs to change if Philadelphia is going to take the series. Buckets will be at a premium in this one, and all these points could be the difference.

This total has dropped to an amazingly low number after Game 6 ended 95-86. So four games in this series have gone over with a pace that both teams enjoyed, but the last game is going to dictate this number? No, I don’t think so. They’ll get serious on possessions in a winner take all game in the fourth quarter, but I expect both teams to be running their game close and fast with each having the star players step up. Over is the top play.

Robert Williams had nine rebounds in Game 6, but played nearly 28 minutes. He hadn't played more than 21.5 minutes in any of the first five games, and didn't finish with more than seven. If he plays nearly 30 minutes again today there's a chance he'll go over the total again, but I'm willing to take that chance.

After averaging 26 minutes per game during the regular season, Malcolm Brogdon has averaged 29 minutes in this series. He has shot 46.1 percent from the field and 90 percent from the charity stripe, which helped him score at least 15 points in five of the six games. He shot 48.4 percent from the field and 87 percent from the free-throw line during the regular season, so his efficiency in the playoffs should come as no surprise. It’s likely that he will play added minutes again, making the over the way to go.

From a scoring perspective, Game 6 was ugly. These two teams combined for just 181 points. Over the last three quarters, they scored a total of just 130 points. Jayson Tatum shot 5-for-21 from the field, James Harden shot 4-for-16 and the 76ers were 8-for-34 from behind the arc. I expect improvement in all three areas. These teams scored at least 208 points in each of the first five games of the series, so look for them to go over this modest total.

After watching Marcus Smart in the playoffs it is become painstakingly clear to me that similar to some other veterans (I.E. Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green) that he has an extra gear reserved for the postseason. After putting up 11.5 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 3.1 RPG in the regular season on 41/33/74 shooting splits, Smart is averaging 16.6 PPG, 5.2 APG, 4.2 RPG on 46/36/82. It's one thing to increase your scoring average but to do so while improving efficiency is impressive, especially against one of the better defenses in the NBA. Smart has also been terrific in elimination games. He has appeared in 9 elimination games since 2020 and is averaging 16.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 6.4 APG while logging close to 40 mins per game. Needless to say he has a ton of experience, the Celtics trust him, and he is likely to have the ball in his hands a lot today.

Tyrese Maxey had struggled mightily against the Celtics over the course of his career. It looked like it was going to be more of the same but Maxey has come on strong over the last two games combining to score 56 points. Now he and the 76ers find themselves in a do or die game 7 on the road in Boston where they are 6.5 point underdogs in a game with an anemic 201 point total. Not only are game seven's historically paced way down, but Boston has opted to insert Robert Williams into their starting lineup which paid of big time for their defense holding Philly to just 86 points in game 6. Even when Maxey has performed well in this series, he tends to get completely phased out of the Sixers 4th quarter offense. In a game that is likely to feature exclusively half court offense with limited possessions I just don't think the volume will be there for Maxey. Also taking into account the pressure of a game 7 on the road, this is a daunting spot for the young guard.

Every possession matters in a Game 7, so the expectation is for a deliberate pace following a low-scoring Game 6. But with all the electric scorers on each side, I'm projecting 211 points for Philly-Boston. That's 10 points higher than the posted total. The Over is cashing in 67 percent of my simulations.