Atlanta is 7-2 SU in its past nine at home and averaging 130.0 ppg in that stretch, which is exactly what they scored in winning Game 3. Trae Young had his best game of the series by far, so if his confidence is back I think the Hawks not only will cover tonight but might win again -- especially if Marcus Smart is out (questionable). The SL Model has Atlanta winning.

Trae Young wants to run pick & roll over, and over, and over again. Nearly half of Young's points (12.7 PPG) are generated from the pick & roll and and as a result the Hawks had the highest frequency of pick & roll ball handler possessions in the regular season. Boston has responded by deploying a drop coverage that has been mostly successful, particularly through the first two games. Al Horford to absolutely no one's surprise a master of drop coverage and Boston has bevy of guards (Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon) who are willing to fight through screens or slip underneath them. This nullifies Young's ability to score in the lane or find a big with a lob pass. The Celtics are willing to live with Trae shooting step back threes or contested jumpers and he is still talented enough to get hot (see game 3) however, the shots he was making were very difficult. I think Boston will continue to force Trae into bad shots which will limit his effectiveness as a scorer and playmaker.

Marcus Smart has gone Over this number in all three playoff games (25, 25 and 35 combined points, rebounds and assists), and historically he tends to produce when matched up against Trae Young. He's playing 32 minutes per game in this series. Known for his defense, Smart is shooting 41 percent from deep against Atlanta as the Hawks concern themselves with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Look for Smart to deliver another strong all-around game.

This is a very friendly number for Brown who averaged a combined 10.4 rebounds and assists in the regular season. Marcus Smart is questionable for game 4 and seems like there is a good shot he misses this game. Brown is already one of the higher usage players in the league but he will get some additional touches if Smart sits. Brown dealt with foul trouble in game three and had a quiet game two performance but I expect him to play upwards of 40 minutes in what is certainly a must win game as Boston wants to avoid heading home with this series tied 2-2.

Atlanta wasn't fazed by the 0-2 series deficit as it stormed back for a 130-122 win in Game 3. Trae Young (32 points) and Dejounte Murray (25 points) were solid in that one. My simulations have them combining for almost 60 points in Game 4 in what I project to be a one-possession game. Take the points with Atlanta at home.